ATP Basel500Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets
Vacherot vs Jodar: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 20h 28mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Valentin Vacherot26%
Rafael Jodar75%
Elo: V. Vacherot 30% · R. Jodar 70%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 V. Vacherot14%
2:1 V. Vacherot13%
2:1 R. Jodar22%
2:0 R. Jodar51%
First set
Valentin Vacherot31%
Rafael Jodar69%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 50%market (no margin): 52%
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.9
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 72% | 28% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 64% | 36% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 57% | 43% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 50% | 50% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 43% | 57% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 39% | 61% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 36% | 64% | 35% |
Sample: 3,955 matches
Games handicap
R. Jodar −3.554%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes46%
tour average 39%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| V. Vacherot | Tour | R. Jodar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 67% | 62% | 64% |
| Return points won | 34% | 38% | 41% |
| Service games held | 84% | 76% | 81% |
| Breaks of serve | 18% | 24% | 30% |
| Aces per service game | 0.74 | 0.39 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.26 | 0.17 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 20% | 12% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 13/22 | 12/25 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 61% | |
| Matches in the sample | 43 | 81 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Valentin Vacherot
- 26/10/26WMariano Navone#43ATP Basel · R326:3 7:6
- 22/10/26LLuca Van Assche#46ATP Lyon · R166:2 4:6 4:6
- 12/10/26LTommy Paul#14ATP Shanghai · R324:6 2:6
- 10/10/26WSebastián Báez#49ATP Shanghai · R646:4 7:6
- 05/10/26LJiří Lehečka#21ATP Tokyo · SF4:6 2:6
- 04/10/26WArthur Fils#8ATP Tokyo · QF7:5 4:6 6:4
- 02/10/26WStefanos Tsitsipas#33ATP Tokyo · R164:6 7:6 6:4
- 30/09/26WAlexander Blockx#27ATP Tokyo · R327:6 7:6
- 26/09/26LLloyd Harris#108ATP Chengdu · R164:6 6:7
- 04/09/26LFrances Tiafoe#9ATP US Open · R324:6 2:6 4:6
Rafael Jodar
- 27/10/26WAlejandro Tabilo#30ATP Basel · R326:4 6:2
- 18/10/26LAlejandro Davidovich Fokina#15ATP Shanghai · F6:1 6:7 4:6
- 17/10/26WDaniil Medvedev#5ATP Shanghai · SF6:3 6:4
- 16/10/26WCasper Ruud#25ATP Shanghai · QF4:6 6:4 6:3
- 14/10/26WBotic Van de Zandschulp#37ATP Shanghai · R166:7 6:4 6:2
- 12/10/26WJiří Lehečka#21ATP Shanghai · R324:6 7:6 6:4
- 10/10/26WThiago Agustin Tirante#51ATP Shanghai · R644:6 6:2 6:3
- 01/10/26LAdolfo Daniel Vallejo#56ATP Tokyo · R321:6 3:6
- 02/09/26LYunchaokete Bu#92ATP US Open · R1282:6 1:6 1:6
- 19/08/26LFlavio Cobolli#6ATP Cincinnati · R166:4 6:7 3:6
Elo over the last year
Valentin VacherotRafael Jodar
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| V. Vacherot | R. Jodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 18–1555% | 41–1475% |
| Clay | 6–460% | 19–483% |
| Grass | 0–0 | 2–167% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Valentin Vacherot
- 26/10/26WMariano Navone#43ATP Basel · R326:3 7:6
Rafael Jodar
- 27/10/26WAlejandro Tabilo#30ATP Basel · R326:4 6:2