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ATP ParisMasters 1000Quarterfinalhard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Fritz vs Alcaraz: prediction and tips

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Taylor FritzATP #12Elo 2148hard 2110
-:-
Carlos AlcarazATP #3Elo 2415hard 2363

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.565%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Alcaraz: 9 matches in a row without a deciding set; No third set in recent matches: Fritz 14 of 20, Alcaraz 16 of 20 (tour average 64%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: Alcaraz73%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 73%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Alcaraz won 9 of the last 10 matches; Alcaraz: 6 wins in a row

  • Total Games: Under 25.562%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 66% → with the players' profiles 62%

    Alcaraz: 9 matches in a row under 25.5 games; Under 25.5 games in recent matches: Fritz 14 of 20, Alcaraz 16 of 20 (tour average 65%)

Long shot
Set Betting: Alcaraz 2-050%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Fritz lost 0-2 in 3 of the last 20 matches, Alcaraz won 2-0 in 14 of the last 20 matches (tour average 32%); Alcaraz won 2-0 in 2 of their 3 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.

Winner

Taylor Fritz27%
Carlos Alcaraz73%

Elo: T. Fritz 19% · C. Alcaraz 81%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 T. Fritz15%
2:1 T. Fritz13%
2:1 C. Alcaraz22%
2:0 C. Alcaraz50%

First set

Taylor Fritz32%
Carlos Alcaraz68%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 47%market (no margin): 51%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.575%25%68%
20.567%33%60%
21.559%41%54%
22.553%47%46%
23.545%55%40%
24.539%61%38%
25.538%62%35%

Sample: 4,236 matches

Games handicap

C. Alcaraz −3.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes50%

tour average 39%

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

T. FritzTourC. Alcaraz
Service points won71%62%67%
Return points won35%38%41%
Service games held89%76%87%
Breaks of serve16%24%30%
Aces per service game1.030.38
Double faults per game0.130.19
Sets with a tie-break22%23%
Tie-breaks won23/3618/28
Wins in straight sets61%76%
Matches in the sample6248

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Taylor Fritz

Carlos Alcaraz

Elo over the last year

Taylor FritzCarlos Alcaraz

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

T. FritzC. Alcaraz
Hard court32–1470%37–588%
Clay0–20%5–183%
Grass11–379%0–0

Head to head

T. Fritz 0–4 C. Alcaraz

  • 11/11/25Winner: C. Alcaraz7:6 5:7 3:6
  • 30/09/25Winner: C. Alcaraz4:6 4:6
  • 11/07/25Winner: C. Alcaraz4:6 7:5 3:6 6:7
  • 30/03/23Winner: C. Alcaraz4:6 2:6

Road through the tournament

Taylor Fritz

Carlos Alcaraz

Upcoming matches

See also