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ATP ParisMasters 1000Round of 64hard, indoorbest of three sets

Bonzi vs Fritz 1:2: result and our tips

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Benjamin BonziATP #95Elo 1941hard 1910
1:2final6:3 3:6 4:6
Taylor FritzATP #12Elo 2126hard 2086

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Won64%

Where the number comes from: market alone 55% → with the players' profiles 64%

Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Bonzi 17 of 20, Fritz 12 of 20 (tour average 59%); Bonzi: 6 matches in a row over 20.5 games

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost69%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Fritz: 7 matches in a row without a deciding set

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Won34%

Where the number comes from: market alone 31% → with the players' profiles 34%

Bonzi: 6 matches in a row over 25.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Benjamin Bonzi21%
Taylor Fritz79%

Elo: B. Bonzi 27% · T. Fritz 73%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 B. Bonzi11%
2:1 B. Bonzi11%
2:1 T. Fritz21%
2:0 T. Fritz57%

First set

Benjamin Bonzi27%
Taylor Fritz73%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes32%
no68%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 50%market (no margin): 49%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.573%27%68%
20.565%36%59%
21.556%44%54%
22.550%50%46%
23.542%58%39%
24.537%64%38%
25.535%65%35%

Sample: 3,148 matches

Games handicap

T. Fritz −4.546%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes48%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 23.0out · 28 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Benjamin BonziTaylor Fritz
8Aces20
4Double faults1
58%First serves in70%
84%First-serve points won77%
52%Second-serve points won58%
1/6Break points converted2/2
12/14Service games held13/14
70%Service points won71%
29%Return points won30%
77Total points won84

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

B. BonziTourT. Fritz
Service points won65%62%70%
Return points won36%38%35%
Service games held82%76%89%
Breaks of serve21%24%17%
Aces per service game0.491.00
Double faults per game0.190.13
Sets with a tie-break20%22%
Tie-breaks won19/3322/34
Wins in straight sets58%63%
Matches in the sample6559

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Benjamin Bonzi

Taylor Fritz

Elo over the last year

Benjamin BonziTaylor Fritz

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

B. BonziT. Fritz
Hard court28–1861%29–1467%
Clay4–640%0–20%
Grass6–367%11–379%

Head to head

B. Bonzi 0–1 T. Fritz

  • 27/04/25Winner: T. Fritz6:4 5:7

Road through the tournament

Benjamin Bonzi

Taylor Fritz

First match in this tournament.

See also