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ATP Basel500Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets

Fritz vs Shapovalov 2:0: result and our tips

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Taylor FritzATP #12Elo 2133hard 2092
2:0final6:4 6:3
Denis ShapovalovATP #51Elo 1987hard 1989

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: FritzWon64%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Fritz won the first set in 6 of their 9 head-to-head matches

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 24.5Won60%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Fritz: 5 matches in a row under 24.5 games

Long shot
1st Set Winner: ShapovalovLost36%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Shapovalov: 4 matches in a row winning the first set

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Taylor Fritz67%
Denis Shapovalov33%

Elo: T. Fritz 64% · D. Shapovalov 36%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 T. Fritz43%
2:1 T. Fritz23%
2:1 D. Shapovalov14%
2:0 D. Shapovalov20%

First set

Taylor Fritz62%
Denis Shapovalov38%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.5 · 54%market (no margin): 51%

The 23.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.569%31%60%
21.561%39%54%
22.555%45%46%
23.547%53%40%
24.540%60%38%
25.539%61%35%
26.535%65%30%

Sample: 5,294 matches

Games handicap

T. Fritz −3.545%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes50%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 23.5in · 19 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Taylor FritzDenis Shapovalov
2Aces8
2Double faults5
70%First serves in61%
85%First-serve points won65%
47%Second-serve points won48%
2/10Break points converted0/3
10/10Service games held7/9
74%Service points won59%
41%Return points won26%
71Total points won56

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

T. FritzTourD. Shapovalov
Service points won70%62%63%
Return points won35%38%38%
Service games held89%76%78%
Breaks of serve16%24%24%
Aces per service game1.010.60
Double faults per game0.140.42
Sets with a tie-break23%13%
Tie-breaks won22/349/14
Wins in straight sets63%55%
Matches in the sample5741

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Taylor Fritz

Denis Shapovalov

Elo over the last year

Taylor FritzDenis Shapovalov

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

T. FritzD. Shapovalov
Hard court27–1466%19–1261%
Clay0–20%2–529%
Grass11–379%1–325%

Head to head

T. Fritz 5–4 D. Shapovalov

  • 24/03/25Winner: T. Fritz7:5 6:3
  • 07/02/25Winner: D. Shapovalov6:2 3:6 6:7
  • 26/03/23Winner: T. Fritz6:4 6:4
  • 02/03/23Winner: T. Fritz6:4 6:4
  • 26/10/22Winner: D. Shapovalov1:6 6:4 3:6
  • 08/10/22Winner: T. Fritz6:3 6:7 6:3
  • 11/03/21Winner: T. Fritz5:7 6:3 7:5
  • 04/09/20Winner: D. Shapovalov6:3 3:6 6:4 6:7 2:6
  • 23/02/18Winner: D. Shapovalov5:7 4:6

Road through the tournament

Taylor Fritz

Denis Shapovalov

See also