Bertola vs Shapovalov: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Bertola lost the first set in 11 of the last 20 matches, Shapovalov won the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)
Other tips
- Match Winner: Shapovalov74%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 74%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Shapovalov won 7 of the last 10 matches
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Bertola: 5 matches in a row winning the first set
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Elo: R. Bertola 15% · D. Shapovalov 85%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.6
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 69% | 31% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 61% | 39% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 55% | 45% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 48% | 53% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 41% | 59% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 38% | 62% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 35% | 65% | 35% |
Sample: 4,057 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 39%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| R. Bertola | Tour | D. Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 63% | 62% | 63% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 77% | 76% | 77% |
| Breaks of serve | 23% | 24% | 23% |
| Aces per service game | 0.44 | 0.60 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.33 | 0.43 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 20% | 13% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 16/32 | 9/14 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 52% | |
| Matches in the sample | 67 | 41 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Remy Bertola
- 25/10/26WMika Brunold#191ATP Basel · Q27:6 6:4
- 24/10/26WJakub Paul#993ATP Basel · Q16:2 6:1
- 21/10/26LDavid Goffin#591ATP Brussels · R326:3 3:6 4:6
- 18/10/26LFederico Cina#142ATP Brussels · Q26:3 6:7 6:7
- 17/10/26WGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard#148ATP Brussels · Q17:6 6:7 7:5
- 14/10/26LOtto Virtanen#121Challenger Roanne · R325:7 5:7
- 30/09/26LLucas Poullain#328Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · R166:3 5:7 3:6
- 29/09/26WAlexandre Reco#809Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · R326:4 6:3
- 22/09/26LJesper De Jong#102Challenger Saint Tropez · R326:7 6:7
- 03/09/26LEdas Butvilas#208Challenger Manacor · R163:6 7:6 3:6
Denis Shapovalov
- 04/10/26LCarlos Alcaraz#3ATP Tokyo · QF6:7 1:2
- 03/10/26WAlejandro Tabilo#30ATP Tokyo · R167:5 3:6 6:4
- 01/10/26WSho Shimabukuro#106ATP Tokyo · R327:5 6:1
- 28/09/26LHubert Hurkacz#28ATP Chengdu · SF7:6 3:6 3:6
- 27/09/26WAdrian Mannarino#73ATP Chengdu · QF6:7 6:3 6:2
- 25/09/26WVit Kopriva#64ATP Chengdu · R166:2 6:3
- 24/09/26WTallon Griekspoor#50ATP Chengdu · R326:4 7:6
- 05/09/26LBen Shelton#4ATP US Open · R326:7 7:6 3:6 4:6
- 02/09/26WLuca Van Assche#46ATP US Open · R646:0 6:4 7:6
- 30/08/26WMiomir Kecmanovic#58ATP US Open · R1286:4 4:6 6:4 6:1
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| R. Bertola | D. Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 18–1949% | 18–1358% |
| Clay | 10–1050% | 2–529% |
| Grass | 7–370% | 1–325% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Remy Bertola
- 24/10/26WJakub Paul#993ATP Basel · Q16:2 6:1
- 25/10/26WMika Brunold#191ATP Basel · Q27:6 6:4
Denis Shapovalov
First match in this tournament.