Michelsen vs Alcaraz: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 8mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Elo: A. Michelsen 13% · C. Alcaraz 87%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.6
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 73% | 27% | 76% |
| 19.5 | 63% | 37% | 67% |
| 20.5 | 54% | 46% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 47% | 53% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 39% | 61% | 45% |
| 23.5 | 33% | 67% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 30% | 70% | 38% |
Sample: 2,288 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 38%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. Michelsen | Tour | C. Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 65% | 62% | 67% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 41% |
| Service games held | 82% | 76% | 87% |
| Breaks of serve | 23% | 24% | 30% |
| Aces per service game | 0.47 | 0.38 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.24 | 0.19 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 19% | 23% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 16/31 | 17/27 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 76% | |
| Matches in the sample | 63 | 47 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Alex Michelsen
- 03/11/26WJiří Lehečka#15ATP Paris · R646:7 6:2 6:4
- 29/10/26LArthur Fils#7ATP Basel · R166:4 3:6 6:7
- 27/10/26WBotic Van de Zandschulp#37ATP Basel · R325:7 6:3 6:3
- 23/10/26LArthur Fils#7ATP Brussels · QF4:6 6:7
- 22/10/26WDavid Goffin#686ATP Brussels · R166:3 6:4
- 19/10/26WAndrea Guerrieri#166ATP Brussels · R326:1 6:2
- 10/10/26LBotic Van de Zandschulp#37ATP Shanghai · R644:6 4:6
- 01/10/26LCarlos Alcaraz#3ATP Tokyo · R326:7 6:4 1:6
- 08/09/26LFrances Tiafoe#8ATP US Open · QF7:5 6:3 5:7 3:6 6:7
- 06/09/26WTomás Martín Etcheverry#31ATP US Open · R167:6 6:4 6:4
Carlos Alcaraz
- 01/11/26WAlex de Minaur#9ATP Vienna · F6:1 6:4
- 31/10/26WDaniil Medvedev#5ATP Vienna · SF6:4 7:6
- 30/10/26WTommy Paul#14ATP Vienna · QF6:4 7:6
- 29/10/26WNikoloz Basilashvili#87ATP Vienna · R166:1 7:6
- 27/10/26WKaren Khachanov#25ATP Vienna · R326:4 7:6
- 12/10/26LZizou Bergs#40ATP Shanghai · R325:7 6:7
- 10/10/26WJuan Manuel Cerúndolo#54ATP Shanghai · R646:3 6:3
- 06/10/26WJiří Lehečka#15ATP Tokyo · F7:6 6:4
- 05/10/26WJaume Munar#65ATP Tokyo · SF5:7 6:3 6:1
- 04/10/26WDenis Shapovalov#51ATP Tokyo · QF7:6 2:1
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. Michelsen | C. Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 30–1567% | 36–588% |
| Clay | 6–746% | 5–183% |
| Grass | 3–260% | 0–0 |
Head to head
A. Michelsen 0–1 C. Alcaraz
- 01/10/26Winner: C. Alcaraz6:7 6:4 1:6
Road through the tournament
Alex Michelsen
- 03/11/26WJiří Lehečka#15ATP Paris · R646:7 6:2 6:4
Carlos Alcaraz
First match in this tournament.