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ATP Vienna500Finalhard, indoorbest of three sets

de Minaur vs Alcaraz 0:2: result and our tips

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Alex de MinaurATP #9Elo 2149hard 2129
0:2final1:6 4:6
Carlos AlcarazATP #3Elo 2408hard 2353

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Set Betting: Alcaraz 2-0Won60%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

de Minaur lost 0-2 in 4 of the last 20 matches, Alcaraz won 2-0 in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 32%); Alcaraz won 2-0 in 3 of their 5 head-to-head matches

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 25.5Won70%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Alcaraz: 7 matches in a row under 25.5 games; Under 25.5 games in recent matches: de Minaur 14 of 20, Alcaraz 16 of 20 (tour average 66%)

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: YesLost37%

Where the number comes from: market alone 35% → with the players' profiles 37%

Alcaraz: 5 matches in a row with a tie-break; A tie-break in recent matches: de Minaur 10 of 20, Alcaraz 9 of 20 (tour average 38%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Alex de Minaur19%
Carlos Alcaraz82%

Elo: A. de Minaur 22% · C. Alcaraz 78%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. de Minaur10%
2:1 A. de Minaur9%
2:1 C. Alcaraz21%
2:0 C. Alcaraz60%

First set

Alex de Minaur26%
Carlos Alcaraz75%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes30%
no70%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 51%market (no margin): 50%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.573%27%76%
19.564%36%67%
20.555%45%59%
21.549%51%54%
22.541%59%46%
23.535%65%39%
24.533%67%38%

Sample: 2,758 matches

Games handicap

C. Alcaraz −4.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes37%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 21.5in · 17 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Alex de MinaurCarlos Alcaraz
1Aces5
3Double faults1
69%First serves in75%
58%First-serve points won81%
41%Second-serve points won42%
0/1Break points converted4/8
5/9Service games held8/8
53%Service points won71%
29%Return points won47%
52Total points won68

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. de MinaurTourC. Alcaraz
Service points won64%62%67%
Return points won40%38%41%
Service games held81%76%87%
Breaks of serve26%24%30%
Aces per service game0.370.38
Double faults per game0.230.19
Sets with a tie-break17%23%
Tie-breaks won18/2817/27
Wins in straight sets67%75%
Matches in the sample6446

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Alex de Minaur

Carlos Alcaraz

Elo over the last year

Alex de MinaurCarlos Alcaraz

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. de MinaurC. Alcaraz
Hard court27–1368%35–588%
Clay7–654%5–183%
Grass8–373%0–0

Head to head

A. de Minaur 0–6 C. Alcaraz

  • 27/01/26Winner: C. Alcaraz5:7 2:6 1:6
  • 09/11/25Winner: C. Alcaraz6:7 2:6
  • 18/04/25Winner: C. Alcaraz5:7 3:6
  • 09/02/25Winner: C. Alcaraz4:6 6:3 2:6
  • 25/06/23Winner: C. Alcaraz4:6 4:6
  • 23/04/22Winner: C. Alcaraz7:6 6:7 4:6

Road through the tournament

Alex de Minaur

Carlos Alcaraz

See also