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ATP Vienna500Semifinalhard, indoorbest of three sets

Zverev vs de Minaur 1:2: result and our tips

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Alexander ZverevATP #1Elo 2270hard 2228
1:2final4:6 6:1 6:7(4)
Alex de MinaurATP #9Elo 2135hard 2114

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: ZverevLost66%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Zverev: 19 matches in a row winning the first set; Zverev won the first set in 19 of the last 20 matches, de Minaur lost the first set in 9 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: ZverevLost71%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 71%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Zverev won 7 of 7 head-to-head matches; Zverev won 8 of the last 10 matches

  • Total Games: Over 20.5Won66%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 61% → with the players' profiles 66%

    Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Zverev 17 of 20, de Minaur 14 of 20 (tour average 60%)

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: YesWon48%

Where the number comes from: market alone 40% → with the players' profiles 48%

A tie-break in recent matches: Zverev 13 of 20, de Minaur 10 of 20 (tour average 39%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Alexander Zverev72%
Alex de Minaur29%

Elo: A. Zverev 66% · A. de Minaur 34%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Zverev48%
2:1 A. Zverev23%
2:1 A. de Minaur13%
2:0 A. de Minaur16%

First set

Alexander Zverev67%
Alex de Minaur33%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 52%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.574%26%68%
20.566%34%60%
21.559%41%54%
22.552%48%46%
23.544%56%40%
24.539%61%38%
25.537%63%35%

Sample: 4,541 matches

Games handicap

A. Zverev −3.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes48%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 30 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Alexander ZverevAlex de Minaur
6Aces5
4Double faults3
72%First serves in60%
68%First-serve points won81%
52%Second-serve points won50%
2/3Break points converted1/14
14/15Service games held12/14
63%Service points won69%
31%Return points won37%
94Total points won95

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. ZverevTourA. de Minaur
Service points won71%62%64%
Return points won37%38%40%
Service games held89%76%81%
Breaks of serve22%24%26%
Aces per service game0.710.37
Double faults per game0.170.24
Sets with a tie-break24%17%
Tie-breaks won38/5417/27
Wins in straight sets59%68%
Matches in the sample8063

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Alexander Zverev

Alex de Minaur

Elo over the last year

Alexander ZverevAlex de Minaur

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. ZverevA. de Minaur
Hard court34–1176%26–1367%
Clay20–483%7–654%
Grass9–282%8–373%

Head to head

A. Zverev 8–0 A. de Minaur

  • 15/10/26Winner: A. Zverev6:4 6:4
  • 05/06/24Winner: A. Zverev6:4 7:6 6:4
  • 12/03/24Winner: A. Zverev5:7 6:2 6:3
  • 12/05/22Winner: A. Zverev6:3 7:6
  • 28/10/21Winner: A. Zverev6:2 3:6 6:2
  • 01/03/19Winner: A. Zverev6:4 6:4
  • 11/10/18Winner: A. Zverev6:1 6:4
  • 05/08/18Winner: A. Zverev6:2 6:4

Road through the tournament

Alexander Zverev

Alex de Minaur

Upcoming matches

See also