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ATP Vienna500Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets

Zverev vs Griekspoor 2:0: result and our tips

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Alexander ZverevATP #1Elo 2265hard 2221
2:0final6:4 7:5
Tallon GriekspoorATP #50Elo 1973hard 1975

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: ZverevWon73%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Zverev: 17 matches in a row winning the first set; Zverev won the first set in 19 of the last 20 matches, Griekspoor lost the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 20.5Won66%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 55% → with the players' profiles 66%

    Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Zverev 17 of 20, Griekspoor 16 of 20 (tour average 59%); Griekspoor: 9 matches in a row over 20.5 games

  • Match Winner: ZverevWon80%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 80%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Zverev won 8 of the last 10 matches; Zverev won 7 of 10 head-to-head matches

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: YesLost50%

Where the number comes from: market alone 36% → with the players' profiles 50%

A tie-break in recent matches: Zverev 15 of 20, Griekspoor 14 of 20 (tour average 38%); A tie-break in 8 of their 10 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Alexander Zverev77%
Tallon Griekspoor23%

Elo: A. Zverev 81% · T. Griekspoor 20%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Zverev54%
2:1 A. Zverev22%
2:1 T. Griekspoor12%
2:0 T. Griekspoor12%

First set

Alexander Zverev71%
Tallon Griekspoor29%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no66%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 47%market (no margin): 51%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.576%24%68%
20.568%32%59%
21.559%41%54%
22.553%47%46%
23.545%55%39%
24.539%61%38%
25.537%63%35%

Sample: 3,474 matches

Games handicap

A. Zverev −4.544%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes52%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 23.0in · 22 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Alexander ZverevTallon Griekspoor
11Aces3
1Double faults1
74%First serves in67%
90%First-serve points won76%
64%Second-serve points won52%
2/6Break points converted0/0
11/11Service games held9/11
83%Service points won68%
32%Return points won17%
66Total points won56

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. ZverevTourT. Griekspoor
Service points won71%62%66%
Return points won37%38%33%
Service games held89%76%83%
Breaks of serve22%24%16%
Aces per service game0.710.72
Double faults per game0.170.26
Sets with a tie-break24%23%
Tie-breaks won38/5411/24
Wins in straight sets58%55%
Matches in the sample7940

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Alexander Zverev

Tallon Griekspoor

Elo over the last year

Alexander ZverevTallon Griekspoor

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. ZverevT. Griekspoor
Hard court33–1175%16–1062%
Clay20–483%3–730%
Grass9–282%1–325%

Head to head

A. Zverev 8–3 T. Griekspoor

  • 05/08/26Winner: T. Griekspoor7:6 2:6 4:6
  • 02/06/25Winner: A. Zverev6:4 3:0
  • 18/04/25Winner: A. Zverev6:7 7:6 6:4
  • 07/03/25Winner: T. Griekspoor6:4 6:7 6:7
  • 30/10/24Winner: A. Zverev7:6 6:3
  • 08/10/24Winner: A. Zverev7:6 2:6 7:6
  • 01/06/24Winner: A. Zverev3:6 6:4 6:2 4:6 7:6
  • 11/03/24Winner: A. Zverev7:6 6:3
  • 08/08/23Winner: A. Zverev6:4 7:6
  • 15/02/23Winner: T. Griekspoor6:4 3:6 4:6

Road through the tournament

Alexander Zverev

Tallon Griekspoor

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