Challenger CharlottesvilleChallenger 75Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets
Shick vs Blanch: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 13mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Braden Shick24%
Darwin Blanch76%
Elo: B. Shick 23% · D. Blanch 77%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 B. Shick14%
2:1 B. Shick11%
2:1 D. Blanch22%
2:0 D. Blanch54%
First set
Braden Shick30%
Darwin Blanch70%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no68%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 52%market (no margin): 49%
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.6
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 71% | 29% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 63% | 37% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 54% | 46% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 48% | 52% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 41% | 59% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 35% | 65% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 33% | 67% | 35% |
Sample: 3,772 matches
Games handicap
D. Blanch −4.546%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes32%
tour average 32%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| B. Shick | Tour | D. Blanch | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 60% | 62% | 64% |
| Return points won | 39% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 73% | 76% | 81% |
| Breaks of serve | 25% | 24% | 22% |
| Aces per service game | 0.39 | 0.58 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.26 | 0.28 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 16% | 18% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 9/14 | 18/32 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 45% | 61% | |
| Matches in the sample | 37 | 74 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Braden Shick
- 02/11/26WColton Smith#218Challenger Charlottesville · R322:3
- 27/10/26LMax Hans Rehberg#248Challenger Sioux Falls · R323:6 3:6
- 20/10/26LGabriel Debru#556Challenger Fort Worth · R326:2 2:6 2:6
- 30/09/26LMees Rottgering#295Challenger Columbus · R161:6 4:6
- 28/09/26WOzan Baris#397Challenger Columbus · R327:6 0:6 6:3
- 21/09/26LPatrick Maloney#773Challenger San Diego 2 · R323:6 6:7
- 16/09/26LJeffrey John Wolf#204Challenger Tiburon · R164:6 7:6 4:6
- 15/09/26WErik Arutiunian#575Challenger Tiburon · R326:3 6:4
- 26/08/26LShintaro Mochizuki#125ATP US Open · Q24:6 1:6
- 25/08/26WClement Tabur#156ATP US Open · Q16:4 7:5
Darwin Blanch
- 03/11/26WAndrew Fenty#489Challenger Charlottesville · R326:4 6:3
- 31/10/26LLiam Draxl#168Challenger Sioux Falls · QF3:6 6:3 0:6
- 29/10/26WMitchell Krueger#361Challenger Sioux Falls · R166:7 6:4 7:5
- 27/10/26WSebastian Gorzny#403Challenger Sioux Falls · R326:4 6:2
- 25/10/26LJenson Brooksby#94Challenger Fort Worth · F1:6 4:6
- 24/10/26WSander Jong#393Challenger Fort Worth · SF7:6 6:2
- 23/10/26WMees Rottgering#295Challenger Fort Worth · QF6:3 6:4
- 21/10/26WDaniel Milavsky#307Challenger Fort Worth · R166:1 6:4
- 20/10/26WAlbert Pedrico KravtsovChallenger Fort Worth · R326:4 7:5
- 02/10/26LDylan Dietrich#189Challenger Columbus · QF3:6 3:6
Elo over the last year
Braden ShickDarwin Blanch
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| B. Shick | D. Blanch | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 18–1456% | 28–2058% |
| Clay | 2–250% | 10–759% |
| Grass | 0–10% | 5–456% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Braden Shick
- 02/11/26WColton Smith#218Challenger Charlottesville · R322:3
Darwin Blanch
- 03/11/26WAndrew Fenty#489Challenger Charlottesville · R326:4 6:3