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Challenger CharlottesvilleChallenger 75Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Smith vs Shick 0:0: result and our tips

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Colton SmithATP #218Elo 1695hard 1673
0:0retired3:2
Braden ShickATP #205Elo 1625hard 1614

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.556%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Smith 16 of 20, Shick 11 of 20 (tour average 54%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: Smith70%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 70%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Shick lost 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 23.538%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 23.5 games in recent matches: Smith 11 of 20, Shick 8 of 20 (tour average 37%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Colton Smith71%
Braden Shick29%

Elo: C. Smith 58% · B. Shick 42%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 C. Smith48%
2:1 C. Smith22%
2:1 B. Shick13%
2:0 B. Shick17%

First set

Colton Smith65%
Braden Shick35%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 51%market (no margin): 50%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.571%30%71%
19.562%38%62%
20.555%45%54%
21.549%51%49%
22.543%57%42%
23.538%62%37%
24.535%65%35%

Sample: 4,666 matches

Games handicap

C. Smith −3.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes30%

tour average 32%

Match stats

Colton SmithBraden Shick
1Aces1
2Double faults1
67%First serves in81%
70%First-serve points won62%
40%Second-serve points won67%
1/1Break points converted0/0
2/2Service games held2/3
60%Service points won63%
38%Return points won40%
15Total points won16

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

C. SmithTourB. Shick
Service points won61%62%60%
Return points won39%38%39%
Service games held75%76%73%
Breaks of serve24%24%25%
Aces per service game0.410.39
Double faults per game0.240.26
Sets with a tie-break16%16%
Tie-breaks won10/199/14
Wins in straight sets72%47%
Matches in the sample5036

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Colton Smith

Braden Shick

Elo over the last year

Colton SmithBraden Shick

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

C. SmithB. Shick
Hard court19–1753%17–1455%
Clay3–633%2–250%
Grass3–260%0–10%

Head to head

They have not met yet.