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Challenger Sioux FallsChallenger 125Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets

Krueger vs Blanch 1:2: result and our tips

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Mitchell KruegerATP #361Elo 1653hard 1648
1:2final7:6(5) 4:6 5:7
Darwin BlanchATP #139Elo 1854hard 1831

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 22.5Lost57%

Where the number comes from: market alone 59% → with the players' profiles 57%

Blanch: 7 matches in a row under 22.5 games

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost67%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Blanch: 7 matches in a row without a deciding set

  • Match Winner: BlanchWon76%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 76%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Blanch won 7 of the last 10 matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Mitchell Krueger24%
Darwin Blanch76%

Elo: M. Krueger 26% · D. Blanch 74%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Krueger14%
2:1 M. Krueger11%
2:1 D. Blanch22%
2:0 D. Blanch54%

First set

Mitchell Krueger30%
Darwin Blanch70%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no67%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 51%market (no margin): 49%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.573%27%71%
19.565%35%62%
20.556%44%54%
21.549%51%49%
22.543%57%42%
23.537%63%37%
24.534%66%35%

Sample: 3,729 matches

Games handicap

D. Blanch −4.546%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes35%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 35 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Mitchell KruegerDarwin Blanch
5Aces16
5Double faults5
59%First serves in57%
74%First-serve points won69%
39%Second-serve points won51%
3/12Break points converted5/8
12/17Service games held14/17
59%Service points won61%
39%Return points won41%
111Total points won118

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. KruegerTourD. Blanch
Service points won62%62%64%
Return points won38%38%37%
Service games held78%76%81%
Breaks of serve23%24%22%
Aces per service game0.310.57
Double faults per game0.180.28
Sets with a tie-break20%18%
Tie-breaks won6/2118/31
Wins in straight sets50%61%
Matches in the sample4471

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Mitchell Krueger

Darwin Blanch

Elo over the last year

Mitchell KruegerDarwin Blanch

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. KruegerD. Blanch
Hard court16–1847%26–1958%
Clay4–640%10–759%
Grass0–05–456%

Head to head

M. Krueger 1–1 D. Blanch

  • 12/11/25Winner: D. Blanch3:6 6:7
  • 09/11/25Winner: M. Krueger6:7 6:4 6:1

Road through the tournament

Mitchell Krueger

Darwin Blanch