Griekspoor vs Nakashima: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 47% → with the players' profiles 57%
Over 22.5 games in recent matches: Griekspoor 16 of 20, Nakashima 13 of 20 (tour average 46%); Griekspoor: 8 matches in a row over 22.5 games
Other tips
- 1st Set Winner: Nakashima63%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Griekspoor lost the first set in 14 of the last 20 matches, Nakashima won the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%); Nakashima: 5 matches in a row winning the first set
Where the number comes from: market alone 29% → with the players' profiles 32%
Over 27.5 games in recent matches: Griekspoor 11 of 20, Nakashima 9 of 20 (tour average 28%); Griekspoor: 3 matches in a row over 27.5 games
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Elo: T. Griekspoor 40% · B. Nakashima 60%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 23.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.8
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 71% | 29% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 63% | 37% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 57% | 43% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 49% | 51% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 42% | 58% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 39% | 61% | 35% |
| 26.5 | 36% | 64% | 30% |
Sample: 5,217 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 39%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| T. Griekspoor | Tour | B. Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 66% | 62% | 68% |
| Return points won | 33% | 38% | 35% |
| Service games held | 82% | 76% | 87% |
| Breaks of serve | 16% | 24% | 20% |
| Aces per service game | 0.70 | 0.79 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.26 | 0.10 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 23% | 26% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 10/23 | 17/37 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 58% | 74% | |
| Matches in the sample | 40 | 57 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Tallon Griekspoor
- 25/10/26WJan-Lennard Struff#47ATP Brussels · F4:6 6:3 6:4
- 24/10/26WFrancisco Cerúndolo#19ATP Brussels · SF2:6 6:3 7:6
- 23/10/26WJiří Lehečka#21ATP Brussels · QF4:6 6:4 6:3
- 21/10/26WMariano Navone#43ATP Brussels · R167:6 7:5
- 20/10/26WMax Schoenhaus#311ATP Brussels · R327:6 6:7 7:5
- 08/10/26LPavel Kotov#169ATP Shanghai · R1284:6 6:7
- 01/10/26LAndrey Rublev#22ATP Beijing · R324:6 7:5 6:7
- 24/09/26LDenis Shapovalov#52ATP Chengdu · R324:6 6:7
- 31/08/26LBen Shelton#4ATP US Open · R1286:1 1:6 6:7 2:6
- 09/08/26LDaniel Merida#42ATP Montreal · R163:6 1:6
Brandon Nakashima
- 23/10/26LFlavio Cobolli#6ATP Lyon · QF6:4 4:6 4:6
- 22/10/26WKyrian Jacquet#79ATP Lyon · R166:4 6:3
- 20/10/26WHamad Medjedovic#78ATP Lyon · R327:6 6:7 6:2
- 11/10/26LAlexander Bublik#20ATP Shanghai · R327:6 3:6 6:7
- 09/10/26WMatteo Berrettini#48ATP Shanghai · R647:6 7:5
- 01/10/26LUgo Humbert#38ATP Tokyo · R323:6 2:6
- 02/09/26LAlex Michelsen#34ATP US Open · R643:6 4:6 4:6
- 31/08/26WSebastián Báez#49ATP US Open · R1286:2 6:1 6:0
- 22/08/26LFrances Tiafoe#9ATP Cincinnati · SF5:7 3:6
- 21/08/26WTaylor Fritz#13ATP Cincinnati · QF7:6 4:6 6:3
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| T. Griekspoor | B. Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 15–1158% | 26–1563% |
| Clay | 3–730% | 5–550% |
| Grass | 1–325% | 4–267% |
Head to head
T. Griekspoor 1–1 B. Nakashima
- 22/10/25Winner: T. Griekspoor7:6 7:6
- 25/05/22Winner: B. Nakashima6:7 4:6 2:6