Cobolli vs Nakashima 2:1: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Cobolli lost the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches, Nakashima won the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%); Nakashima: 4 matches in a row winning the first set
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Cobolli lost 0-2 in 9 of the last 20 matches, Nakashima won 2-0 in 8 of the last 20 matches (tour average 32%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: F. Cobolli 41% · B. Nakashima 60%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 25.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 69% | 31% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 61% | 39% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 55% | 45% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 47% | 53% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 40% | 60% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 39% | 62% | 35% |
| 26.5 | 35% | 65% | 30% |
Sample: 5,198 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 39%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 2:1
- Total games Under 25.0out · 30 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Flavio Cobolli | Brandon Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Aces | 13 |
| 2 | Double faults | 1 |
| 61% | First serves in | 67% |
| 79% | First-serve points won | 71% |
| 55% | Second-serve points won | 35% |
| 3/10 | Break points converted | 2/5 |
| 13/15 | Service games held | 12/15 |
| 69% | Service points won | 59% |
| 41% | Return points won | 31% |
| 105 | Total points won | 92 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| F. Cobolli | Tour | B. Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 63% | 62% | 68% |
| Return points won | 36% | 38% | 35% |
| Service games held | 79% | 76% | 87% |
| Breaks of serve | 21% | 24% | 19% |
| Aces per service game | 0.49 | 0.78 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.22 | 0.10 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 19% | 26% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 17/29 | 17/37 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 74% | |
| Matches in the sample | 57 | 57 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Flavio Cobolli
- 22/10/26WStan Wawrinka#151ATP Lyon · R166:2 6:4
- 09/10/26LAdrian Mannarino#73ATP Shanghai · R641:6 6:4 3:6
- 01/10/26LRoman Safiullin#69ATP Beijing · R323:6 2:6
- 05/09/26LAlexander Blockx#27ATP US Open · R327:6 3:6 0:6 3:6
- 03/09/26WTristan Schoolkate#141ATP US Open · R643:6 6:3 6:4 7:5
- 01/09/26WFrancisco Comesana#128ATP US Open · R1283:6 2:6 6:3 6:4 6:4
- 22/08/26LArthur Fils#8ATP Cincinnati · SF3:6 4:6
- 20/08/26WTommy Paul#14ATP Cincinnati · QF2:6 6:3 6:4
- 19/08/26WRafael Jodar#11ATP Cincinnati · R164:6 7:6 6:3
- 17/08/26WAlexander Blockx#27ATP Cincinnati · R327:5 4:6 7:5
Brandon Nakashima
- 22/10/26WKyrian Jacquet#79ATP Lyon · R166:4 6:3
- 20/10/26WHamad Medjedovic#78ATP Lyon · R327:6 6:7 6:2
- 11/10/26LAlexander Bublik#20ATP Shanghai · R327:6 3:6 6:7
- 09/10/26WMatteo Berrettini#48ATP Shanghai · R647:6 7:5
- 01/10/26LUgo Humbert#38ATP Tokyo · R323:6 2:6
- 02/09/26LAlex Michelsen#34ATP US Open · R643:6 4:6 4:6
- 31/08/26WSebastián Báez#49ATP US Open · R1286:2 6:1 6:0
- 22/08/26LFrances Tiafoe#9ATP Cincinnati · SF5:7 3:6
- 21/08/26WTaylor Fritz#13ATP Cincinnati · QF7:6 4:6 6:3
- 19/08/26WNuno Borges#53ATP Cincinnati · R166:3 6:7 6:3
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| F. Cobolli | B. Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 16–1453% | 26–1563% |
| Clay | 14–767% | 5–550% |
| Grass | 4–267% | 4–267% |
Head to head
F. Cobolli 0–1 B. Nakashima
- 27/04/25Winner: B. Nakashima5:7 3:6
Road through the tournament
Flavio Cobolli
- 22/10/26WStan Wawrinka#151ATP Lyon · R166:2 6:4
Brandon Nakashima
- 20/10/26WHamad Medjedovic#78ATP Lyon · R327:6 6:7 6:2
- 22/10/26WKyrian Jacquet#79ATP Lyon · R166:4 6:3