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ATP Vienna500Quarterfinalhard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Berrettini vs de Minaur 0:2: result and our tips

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Matteo BerrettiniATP #43Elo 1983hard 1943
0:2final6:7(4) 2:6
Alex de MinaurATP #9Elo 2128hard 2107

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.5Won63%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

No third set in 4 of their 4 head-to-head matches

Other tips

  • Match Winner: de MinaurWon67%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 67%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    de Minaur won 8 of the last 10 matches

  • Total Games: Under 26.5Won66%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 68% → with the players' profiles 66%

    Under 26.5 games in 4 of their 4 head-to-head matches

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: YesWon48%

Where the number comes from: market alone 41% → with the players' profiles 48%

A tie-break in recent matches: Berrettini 14 of 20, de Minaur 9 of 20 (tour average 39%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Matteo Berrettini31%
Alex de Minaur69%

Elo: M. Berrettini 28% · A. de Minaur 72%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Berrettini18%
2:1 M. Berrettini14%
2:1 A. de Minaur23%
2:0 A. de Minaur45%

First set

Matteo Berrettini36%
Alex de Minaur64%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 53%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.575%25%68%
20.567%33%60%
21.560%41%54%
22.553%47%46%
23.545%55%40%
24.540%60%38%
25.538%62%35%

Sample: 5,028 matches

Games handicap

A. de Minaur −3.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes48%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 22.5out · 21 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Matteo BerrettiniAlex de Minaur
4Aces5
0Double faults2
64%First serves in71%
79%First-serve points won73%
29%Second-serve points won62%
0/6Break points converted2/3
8/10Service games held10/10
61%Service points won70%
30%Return points won39%
62Total points won77

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. BerrettiniTourA. de Minaur
Service points won68%62%64%
Return points won34%38%40%
Service games held86%76%81%
Breaks of serve17%24%26%
Aces per service game0.690.37
Double faults per game0.160.24
Sets with a tie-break24%17%
Tie-breaks won16/2817/27
Wins in straight sets52%68%
Matches in the sample4563

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Matteo Berrettini

Alex de Minaur

Elo over the last year

Matteo BerrettiniAlex de Minaur

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. BerrettiniA. de Minaur
Hard court11–955%25–1464%
Clay12–1055%7–654%
Grass2–167%8–373%

Head to head

M. Berrettini 3–2 A. de Minaur

  • 24/10/25Winner: A. de Minaur1:6 6:7
  • 25/03/25Winner: M. Berrettini6:3 7:6
  • 07/07/23Winner: M. Berrettini6:3 6:4 6:4
  • 02/01/22Winner: A. de Minaur3:6 6:7
  • 19/06/21Winner: M. Berrettini6:4 6:4

Road through the tournament

Matteo Berrettini

Alex de Minaur

See also