ATP Basel500Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets
Michelsen vs Fils: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 20h 26mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Alex Michelsen33%
Arthur Fils67%
Elo: A. Michelsen 36% · A. Fils 64%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 A. Michelsen20%
2:1 A. Michelsen14%
2:1 A. Fils23%
2:0 A. Fils43%
First set
Alex Michelsen38%
Arthur Fils62%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 53%market (no margin): 49%
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.3
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 75% | 25% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 67% | 33% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 53% | 47% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 45% | 55% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 40% | 60% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 38% | 62% | 35% |
Sample: 5,284 matches
Games handicap
A. Fils −3.545%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes48%
tour average 39%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. Michelsen | Tour | A. Fils | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 65% | 62% | 68% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 82% | 76% | 86% |
| Breaks of serve | 23% | 24% | 23% |
| Aces per service game | 0.48 | 0.50 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.24 | 0.20 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 19% | 22% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 16/29 | 16/27 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 67% | |
| Matches in the sample | 61 | 53 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Alex Michelsen
- 27/10/26WBotic Van de Zandschulp#37ATP Basel · R325:7 6:3 6:3
- 23/10/26LArthur Fils#8ATP Brussels · QF4:6 6:7
- 22/10/26WDavid Goffin#591ATP Brussels · R166:3 6:4
- 19/10/26WAndrea Guerrieri#165ATP Brussels · R326:1 6:2
- 10/10/26LBotic Van de Zandschulp#37ATP Shanghai · R644:6 4:6
- 01/10/26LCarlos Alcaraz#3ATP Tokyo · R326:7 6:4 1:6
- 08/09/26LFrances Tiafoe#9ATP US Open · QF7:5 6:3 5:7 3:6 6:7
- 06/09/26WTomás Martín Etcheverry#29ATP US Open · R167:6 6:4 6:4
- 04/09/26WDaniel Merida#42ATP US Open · R327:6 6:4 6:3
- 02/09/26WBrandon Nakashima#17ATP US Open · R646:3 6:4 6:4
Arthur Fils
- 27/10/26WGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard#148ATP Basel · R327:6 7:5
- 24/10/26LJan-Lennard Struff#47ATP Brussels · SF4:6 7:6 6:7
- 23/10/26WAlex Michelsen#34ATP Brussels · QF6:4 7:6
- 12/10/26LBotic Van de Zandschulp#37ATP Shanghai · R325:7 4:6
- 10/10/26WPavel Kotov#169ATP Shanghai · R646:3 6:4
- 04/10/26LValentin Vacherot#31ATP Tokyo · QF5:7 6:4 4:6
- 02/10/26WFrances Tiafoe#9ATP Tokyo · R166:3 7:5
- 30/09/26WLuca Van Assche#46ATP Tokyo · R326:3 6:2
- 29/09/26WKamil Majchrzak#82ATP Tokyo · Q26:2 3:6 6:1
- 28/09/26WMartin Damm Jr#105ATP Tokyo · Q12:6 6:1 6:1
Elo over the last year
Alex MichelsenArthur Fils
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. Michelsen | A. Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 29–1467% | 29–1173% |
| Clay | 6–746% | 9–282% |
| Grass | 3–260% | 1–150% |
Head to head
A. Michelsen 0–1 A. Fils
- 23/10/26Winner: A. Fils4:6 6:7
Road through the tournament
Alex Michelsen
- 27/10/26WBotic Van de Zandschulp#37ATP Basel · R325:7 6:3 6:3
Arthur Fils
- 27/10/26WGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard#148ATP Basel · R327:6 7:5