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ATP Basel500Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Mpetshi Perricard vs Fils 0:2: result and our tips

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Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardATP #148Elo 1805hard 1757
0:2final6:7(5) 5:7
Arthur FilsATP #8Elo 2180hard 2128

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Won70%

Where the number comes from: market alone 59% → with the players' profiles 70%

Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Mpetshi Perricard 15 of 20, Fils 13 of 20 (tour average 59%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: FilsWon76%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 76%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Mpetshi Perricard lost 8 of the last 10 matches

  • 1st Set Winner: FilsWon70%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Mpetshi Perricard lost the first set in 10 of the last 20 matches, Fils won the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Lost38%

Where the number comes from: market alone 34% → with the players' profiles 38%

Mpetshi Perricard: 4 matches in a row over 25.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard24%
Arthur Fils76%

Elo: G. Mpetshi Perricard 11% · A. Fils 89%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 G. Mpetshi Perricard13%
2:1 G. Mpetshi Perricard12%
2:1 A. Fils22%
2:0 A. Fils53%

First set

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard29%
Arthur Fils71%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no66%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.5 · 53%market (no margin): 52%

The 23.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.569%31%59%
21.561%39%54%
22.554%46%46%
23.547%53%39%
24.540%60%38%
25.537%63%35%
26.535%65%30%

Sample: 3,594 matches

Games handicap

A. Fils −3.556%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes54%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 23.5out · 25 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardArthur Fils
21Aces5
2Double faults1
63%First serves in62%
78%First-serve points won78%
44%Second-serve points won68%
0/1Break points converted1/13
11/12Service games held12/12
66%Service points won74%
26%Return points won34%
82Total points won88

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

G. Mpetshi PerricardTourA. Fils
Service points won68%62%68%
Return points won29%38%37%
Service games held85%76%85%
Breaks of serve11%24%23%
Aces per service game1.140.51
Double faults per game0.250.20
Sets with a tie-break35%21%
Tie-breaks won19/3615/26
Wins in straight sets44%66%
Matches in the sample4052

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Arthur Fils

Elo over the last year

Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardArthur Fils

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

G. Mpetshi PerricardA. Fils
Hard court9–1735%28–1172%
Clay3–443%9–282%
Grass4–357%1–150%

Head to head

G. Mpetshi Perricard 1–0 A. Fils

  • 13/11/22Winner: G. Mpetshi Perricard6:3 6:3

Road through the tournament

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Arthur Fils

First match in this tournament.

See also