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ATP Brussels250Semifinalhard, indoorbest of three sets

Fils vs Struff 1:2: result and our tips

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Arthur FilsATP #8Elo 2203hard 2153
1:2final4:6 7:6(7) 6:7(5)
Jan-Lennard StruffATP #47Elo 1924hard 1869

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 24.5Lost69%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 24.5 games in recent matches: Fils 17 of 20, Struff 12 of 20 (tour average 62%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Arthur Fils83%
Jan-Lennard Struff17%

Elo: A. Fils 84% · J.-L. Struff 16%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Fils61%
2:1 A. Fils21%
2:1 J.-L. Struff9%
2:0 J.-L. Struff10%

First set

Arthur Fils76%
Jan-Lennard Struff24%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes29%
no71%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 50%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.578%22%76%
19.569%31%67%
20.559%41%59%
21.551%50%54%
22.544%56%45%
23.537%64%39%
24.532%68%38%

Sample: 2,491 matches

Games handicap

A. Fils −4.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes42%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 22.0out · 36 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Arthur FilsJan-Lennard Struff
17Aces15
4Double faults2
67%First serves in65%
76%First-serve points won82%
54%Second-serve points won53%
2/6Break points converted3/10
14/17Service games held15/17
68%Service points won72%
28%Return points won32%
111Total points won115

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. FilsTourJ.-L. Struff
Service points won68%62%65%
Return points won37%38%35%
Service games held86%76%82%
Breaks of serve23%24%18%
Aces per service game0.490.73
Double faults per game0.200.24
Sets with a tie-break20%22%
Tie-breaks won14/2420/33
Wins in straight sets66%62%
Matches in the sample5155

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Arthur Fils

Jan-Lennard Struff

Elo over the last year

Arthur FilsJan-Lennard Struff

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. FilsJ.-L. Struff
Hard court28–1074%19–1654%
Clay9–282%4–736%
Grass1–150%6–367%

Head to head

A. Fils 1–0 J.-L. Struff

  • 30/10/24Winner: A. Fils6:3 6:4

Road through the tournament

Arthur Fils

Jan-Lennard Struff