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ATP ParisMasters 1000Qualifying round 2hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Borges vs Molcan 0:2: result and our tips

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Nuno BorgesATP #49Elo 1996hard 1957
0:2final6:7(5) 2:6
Alex MolcanATP #78Elo 1934hard 1867

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 25.5Won59%

Where the number comes from: market alone 61% → with the players' profiles 59%

Molcan: 7 matches in a row under 25.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Nuno Borges59%
Alex Molcan41%

Elo: N. Borges 63% · A. Molcan 37%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 N. Borges37%
2:1 N. Borges21%
2:1 A. Molcan19%
2:0 A. Molcan23%

First set

Nuno Borges56%
Alex Molcan44%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 23.0 · 47%market (no margin): 49%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.568%32%60%
21.562%39%54%
22.554%46%46%
23.547%53%40%
24.544%57%38%
25.541%59%35%
26.536%64%30%

Sample: 6,017 matches

Games handicap

N. Borges −2.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes46%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Over 23.0out · 21 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Nuno BorgesAlex Molcan
8Aces3
1Double faults1
72%First serves in73%
65%First-serve points won74%
39%Second-serve points won63%
1/2Break points converted3/9
7/10Service games held9/10
58%Service points won71%
29%Return points won42%
54Total points won69

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

N. BorgesTourA. Molcan
Service points won66%62%63%
Return points won36%38%40%
Service games held84%76%79%
Breaks of serve19%24%27%
Aces per service game0.540.34
Double faults per game0.170.15
Sets with a tie-break20%10%
Tie-breaks won12/318/13
Wins in straight sets67%62%
Matches in the sample6154

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Nuno Borges

Alex Molcan

Elo over the last year

Nuno BorgesAlex Molcan

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

N. BorgesA. Molcan
Hard court19–1556%8–850%
Clay9–950%23–1070%
Grass5–456%3–260%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Nuno Borges

Alex Molcan