Skip to content
Challenger Costa do SauipeChallenger 175Semifinalclaybest of three sets

Bueno vs Ugo Carabelli: prediction and tips

·

Gonzalo BuenoATP #198Elo 1716clay 1725
-:-
Camilo Ugo CarabelliATP #81Elo 1889clay 1908

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: Ugo Carabelli75%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 75%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Ugo Carabelli: 4 wins in a row

Long shot
1st Set Winner: Bueno32%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Bueno: 5 matches in a row winning the first set; Bueno won the first set in 11 of the last 20 matches, Ugo Carabelli lost the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.

Winner

Gonzalo Bueno24%
Camilo Ugo Carabelli76%

Elo: G. Bueno 26% · C. Ugo Carabelli 74%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 G. Bueno13%
2:1 G. Bueno12%
2:1 C. Ugo Carabelli22%
2:0 C. Ugo Carabelli53%

First set

Gonzalo Bueno31%
Camilo Ugo Carabelli69%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no66%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.0 · 51%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.573%27%76%
18.564%36%68%
19.555%45%59%
20.549%51%52%
21.543%57%46%
22.538%62%40%
23.535%65%36%

Sample: 3,075 matches

Games handicap

C. Ugo Carabelli −4.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes21%

tour average 27%

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

G. BuenoTourC. Ugo Carabelli
Service points won57%62%61%
Return points won42%38%37%
Service games held68%76%75%
Breaks of serve31%24%23%
Aces per service game0.130.32
Double faults per game0.300.24
Sets with a tie-break9%17%
Tie-breaks won11/1511/21
Wins in straight sets64%59%
Matches in the sample6952

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Gonzalo Bueno

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Elo over the last year

Gonzalo BuenoCamilo Ugo Carabelli

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

G. BuenoC. Ugo Carabelli
Hard court3–350%4–1225%
Clay36–2658%23–1266%
Grass0–10%0–10%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Gonzalo Bueno

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Upcoming matches

See also