Challenger Costa do SauipeChallenger 175Round of 16claybest of three sets
Marcondes vs Ugo Carabelli: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 9mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Igor Marcondes27%
Camilo Ugo Carabelli73%
Elo: I. Marcondes 32% · C. Ugo Carabelli 68%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 I. Marcondes15%
2:1 I. Marcondes13%
2:1 C. Ugo Carabelli23%
2:0 C. Ugo Carabelli49%
First set
Igor Marcondes33%
Camilo Ugo Carabelli67%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 51%market (no margin): 52%
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.6
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 71% | 29% | 68% |
| 19.5 | 62% | 38% | 59% |
| 20.5 | 55% | 45% | 52% |
| 21.5 | 49% | 51% | 46% |
| 22.5 | 42% | 58% | 40% |
| 23.5 | 37% | 63% | 36% |
| 24.5 | 35% | 65% | 34% |
Sample: 3,542 matches
Games handicap
C. Ugo Carabelli −4.545%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes28%
tour average 27%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| I. Marcondes | Tour | C. Ugo Carabelli | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 64% | 62% | 61% |
| Return points won | 40% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 79% | 76% | 74% |
| Breaks of serve | 26% | 24% | 23% |
| Aces per service game | 0.39 | 0.31 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.21 | 0.24 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 18% | 17% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 11/22 | 11/21 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 56% | |
| Matches in the sample | 53 | 50 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Igor Marcondes
- 03/11/26WLuis Felipe MiguelChallenger Costa do Sauipe · R327:5 6:3
- 22/10/26LErik Arutiunian#575Challenger Fort Worth · R166:7 5:7
- 20/10/26WSebastian Gorzny#403Challenger Fort Worth · R327:5 2:6 6:4
- 29/09/26LAndrew Fenty#489Challenger Columbus · R322:6 4:6
- 26/09/26WTimo Legout#338Challenger San Diego 2 · SF6:7 7:5 7:5
- 25/09/26WFederico Agustin Gomez#208Challenger San Diego 2 · QF4:6 6:4 6:1
- 23/09/26WPatrick Maloney#773Challenger San Diego 2 · R163:6 7:6 6:2
- 22/09/26WOzan Baris#397Challenger San Diego 2 · R326:1 6:3
- 15/09/26LNishesh Basavareddy#128Challenger Tiburon · R322:6 2:6
- 24/08/26LMax Purcell#618Challenger Kingston 2 · R324:6 2:6
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
- 03/11/26WNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo#151Challenger Costa do Sauipe · R326:7 6:4 6:2
- 29/10/26WAlex Hernandez#469Challenger Guayaquil · R162:0
- 27/10/26WFederico Coria#831Challenger Guayaquil · R327:5 6:2
- 10/10/26LFelix Auger-Aliassime#13ATP Shanghai · R646:4 6:7 5:7
- 08/10/26WIlia Simakin#148ATP Shanghai · R1282:6 6:2 7:5
- 28/09/26LRinky Hijikata#83ATP Tokyo · Q12:6 3:6
- 24/09/26LFederico Cina#136ATP Chengdu · R323:6 2:6
- 01/09/26LJan-Lennard Struff#39ATP US Open · R1284:6 3:6 3:6
- 21/08/26LMoez Echargui#349Challenger Cancun · R162:6 0:5
- 19/08/26WNicolas Mejia#115Challenger Cancun · R327:5 6:4
Elo over the last year
Igor MarcondesCamilo Ugo Carabelli
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| I. Marcondes | C. Ugo Carabelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 13–765% | 4–1225% |
| Clay | 21–1166% | 21–1264% |
| Grass | 0–10% | 0–10% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Igor Marcondes
- 03/11/26WLuis Felipe MiguelChallenger Costa do Sauipe · R327:5 6:3
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
- 03/11/26WNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo#151Challenger Costa do Sauipe · R326:7 6:4 6:2