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Challenger GuayaquilChallenger 75Round of 16claybest of three sets

Ugo Carabelli vs Hernandez 0:0: result and our tips

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Camilo Ugo CarabelliATP #81Elo 1865clay 1885
0:0retired2:0
Alex HernandezATP #469Elo 1515clay 1518

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 16.560%

Where the number comes from: market alone 63% → with the players' profiles 60%

Ugo Carabelli: 15 matches in a row over 16.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 19.534%

Where the number comes from: market alone 36% → with the players' profiles 34%

Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Ugo Carabelli 15 of 20, Hernandez 13 of 20 (tour average 59%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Camilo Ugo Carabelli93%
Alex Hernandez7%

Elo: C. Ugo Carabelli 89% · A. Hernandez 11%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 C. Ugo Carabelli79%
2:1 C. Ugo Carabelli14%
2:1 A. Hernandez4%
2:0 A. Hernandez3%

First set

Camilo Ugo Carabelli88%
Alex Hernandez12%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes18%
no82%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 18.0 · 51%market (no margin): 50%

The 18.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 19.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
14.583%17%96%
15.571%29%91%
16.560%41%84%
17.549%51%76%
18.541%59%68%
19.534%66%59%
20.528%72%52%

Sample: 1,311 matches

Games handicap

C. Ugo Carabelli −6.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes13%

tour average 27%

Match stats

Camilo Ugo CarabelliAlex Hernandez
—Aces—
0Double faults2
40%First serves in82%
50%First-serve points won44%
100%Second-serve points won0%
1/1Break points converted0/0
1/1Service games held0/1
80%Service points won36%
64%Return points won20%
11Total points won5

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

C. Ugo CarabelliTourA. Hernandez
Service points won60%62%59%
Return points won37%38%38%
Service games held74%76%70%
Breaks of serve22%24%24%
Aces per service game0.310.20
Double faults per game0.240.36
Sets with a tie-break17%10%
Tie-breaks won11/205/9
Wins in straight sets61%73%
Matches in the sample4839

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Alex Hernandez

  • 28/10/26WAlvaro Guillen Meza#392Challenger Guayaquil · R326:4 6:3
  • 26/10/26WFilip Misolic#676Challenger Guayaquil · Q26:4 6:4
  • 25/10/26WJose Pereira#739Challenger Guayaquil · Q16:1 1:0
  • 20/10/26LGustavo Heide#112Challenger Cali · R324:6 6:3 3:6
  • 19/10/26LFranco Ribero#683Challenger Cali · Q22:6 2:6
  • 18/10/26WMatteo Covato#708Challenger Cali · Q17:5 6:4
  • 08/09/26LGabi Adrian Boitan#468Challenger Istanbul 3 · R326:7 4:6
  • 07/09/26WTuncay Duran#550Challenger Istanbul 3 · Q26:4 1:6 6:3
  • 06/09/26WCem IlkelChallenger Istanbul 3 · Q16:2 6:4
  • 31/08/26LMarek Gengel#410Challenger Manacor · Q17:6 3:6 0:2

Elo over the last year

Camilo Ugo CarabelliAlex Hernandez

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

C. Ugo CarabelliA. Hernandez
Hard court4–1225%8–1436%
Clay19–1261%7–1041%
Grass0–10%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Alex Hernandez

Upcoming matches

See also