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Challenger GuayaquilChallenger 75Round of 32claybest of three sets

Ugo Carabelli vs Coria 2:0: result and our tips

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Camilo Ugo CarabelliATP #81Elo 1859clay 1879
2:0final7:5 6:2
Federico CoriaATP #831Elo 1642clay 1648

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Set Betting: Ugo Carabelli 2-0Won58%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Ugo Carabelli won 2-0 in 3 of their 4 head-to-head matches

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 22.5Won64%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Under 22.5 games in 4 of their 4 head-to-head matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 21.5Lost42%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Ugo Carabelli 14 of 20, Coria 8 of 17 (tour average 46%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Camilo Ugo Carabelli80%
Federico Coria20%

Elo: C. Ugo Carabelli 79% · F. Coria 21%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 C. Ugo Carabelli58%
2:1 C. Ugo Carabelli22%
2:1 F. Coria10%
2:0 F. Coria11%

First set

Camilo Ugo Carabelli73%
Federico Coria27%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes32%
no68%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.5 · 53%market (no margin): 52%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.581%19%84%
17.572%28%76%
18.562%38%68%
19.553%47%59%
20.547%53%52%
21.542%58%47%
22.536%64%40%

Sample: 2,456 matches

Games handicap

C. Ugo Carabelli −4.555%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes22%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 20.5in · 20 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Camilo Ugo CarabelliFederico Coria
5Aces5
1Double faults6
50%First serves in64%
93%First-serve points won61%
52%Second-serve points won43%
4/8Break points converted1/2
9/10Service games held6/10
72%Service points won54%
46%Return points won28%
66Total points won47

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

C. Ugo CarabelliTourF. Coria
Service points won60%62%57%
Return points won37%38%38%
Service games held74%76%65%
Breaks of serve22%24%24%
Aces per service game0.300.22
Double faults per game0.240.23
Sets with a tie-break17%17%
Tie-breaks won12/214/7
Wins in straight sets61%33%
Matches in the sample4919

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Federico Coria

Elo over the last year

Camilo Ugo CarabelliFederico Coria

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

C. Ugo CarabelliF. Coria
Hard court5–1328%0–10%
Clay18–1260%5–1131%
Grass0–10%1–150%

Head to head

C. Ugo Carabelli 3–1 F. Coria

  • 28/02/25Winner: C. Ugo Carabelli6:4 6:3
  • 04/02/24Winner: C. Ugo Carabelli7:5 6:4
  • 13/11/23Winner: C. Ugo Carabelli7:6 6:0
  • 22/08/23Winner: F. Coria3:6 1:6

Upcoming matches

See also