Challenger MatsuyamaChallenger 75Quarterfinalhardbest of three setsqualifying
Hsu vs Friend: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 9h 49mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Yu Hsiou Hsu42%
Jay Friend58%
Elo: Y. Hsu 30% · J. Friend 70%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 Y. Hsu25%
2:1 Y. Hsu17%
2:1 J. Friend21%
2:0 J. Friend37%
First set
Yu Hsiou Hsu44%
Jay Friend56%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 48%market (no margin): 50%
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 69% | 31% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 61% | 39% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 56% | 44% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 48% | 52% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 42% | 58% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 40% | 60% | 35% |
| 25.5 | 37% | 64% | 32% |
Sample: 6,114 matches
Games handicap
J. Friend −2.548%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes37%
tour average 32%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| Y. Hsu | Tour | J. Friend | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 61% | 62% | 65% |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 74% | 76% | 82% |
| Breaks of serve | 21% | 24% | 23% |
| Aces per service game | 0.27 | 0.47 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.17 | 0.29 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 10% | 19% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 7/11 | 13/23 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 59% | |
| Matches in the sample | 45 | 50 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Yu Hsiou Hsu
- 11/11/26WNiels McDonald#472Challenger Matsuyama · R166:3 6:3
- 09/11/26WKeegan Smith#189Challenger Matsuyama · R326:3 6:3
- 03/11/26LOmar Jasika#301Challenger Taipei · R321:6 6:3 4:6
- 31/10/26LYaroslav Demin#361Challenger Ningbo · SF5:7 6:1 4:6
- 30/10/26WMert Alkaya#319Challenger Ningbo · QF6:3 6:3
- 28/10/26WYuta Shimizu#362Challenger Ningbo · R167:5 3:6 6:4
- 27/10/26WKeegan Smith#189Challenger Ningbo · R324:6 7:5 7:6
- 20/10/26LJie Cui#368Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · R322:6 4:6
- 08/09/26LIlya Ivashka#223Challenger Shanghai · R323:6 3:6
- 02/09/26LJames Kent Trotter#516Challenger Zhangjiagang · R164:6 5:7
Jay Friend
- 11/11/26WNaoya Honda#588Challenger Matsuyama · R166:4 6:0
- 09/11/26WYusuke Kusuhara#921Challenger Matsuyama · R326:2 3:6 6:3
- 29/10/26LSho Shimabukuro#123Challenger Seoul · R163:6 1:6
- 27/10/26WAugust Holmgren#265Challenger Seoul · R326:3 6:3
- 23/10/26LColeman Wong#84Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · QF6:7 1:6
- 21/10/26WJames McCabe#287Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · R164:6 7:6 6:4
- 20/10/26WOgnjen Milic#392Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · R326:4 6:7 7:6
- 15/10/26LAlexander Shevchenko#107Challenger Jinan · R160:6 4:6
- 13/10/26WAlibek Kachmazov#347Challenger Jinan · R326:7 7:5 6:3
- 11/10/26LAlibek Kachmazov#347Challenger Wuning 3 · F6:4 6:7 6:7
Elo over the last year
Yu Hsiou HsuJay Friend
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| Y. Hsu | J. Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 16–1748% | 32–1864% |
| Clay | 3–443% | 0–0 |
| Grass | 2–433% | 0–0 |
Head to head
Y. Hsu 1–0 J. Friend
- 20/07/26Winner: Y. Hsu6:3 6:4
Road through the tournament
Yu Hsiou Hsu
- 09/11/26WKeegan Smith#189Challenger Matsuyama · R326:3 6:3
- 11/11/26WNiels McDonald#472Challenger Matsuyama · R166:3 6:3
Jay Friend
- 09/11/26WYusuke Kusuhara#921Challenger Matsuyama · R326:2 3:6 6:3
- 11/11/26WNaoya Honda#588Challenger Matsuyama · R166:4 6:0
Upcoming matches
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- Francesco Maestrelli vs Sumit Nagal, · Challenger Hersonissos 3
- Michele Ribecai vs Adrian Andreev, · Challenger Hersonissos 3
- Zsombor Piros vs Daniel Altmaier, · Challenger Orleans