Shelton vs Alcaraz: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 79%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Alcaraz: 8 wins in a row; Alcaraz won 9 of the last 10 matches
Other tips
- Total Games: Over 19.573%
Where the number comes from: market alone 65% → with the players' profiles 73%
Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Shelton 16 of 20, Alcaraz 15 of 20 (tour average 68%)
- 1st Set Winner: Alcaraz72%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Shelton lost the first set in 9 of the last 20 matches, Alcaraz won the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)
Where the number comes from: market alone 37% → with the players' profiles 48%
A tie-break in recent matches: Shelton 11 of 20, Alcaraz 11 of 20 (tour average 38%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: B. Shelton 23% · C. Alcaraz 77%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.1
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 74% | 27% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 65% | 35% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 57% | 44% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 51% | 50% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 43% | 57% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 37% | 63% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 36% | 64% | 35% |
Sample: 3,319 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 38%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| B. Shelton | Tour | C. Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 70% | 62% | 67% |
| Return points won | 33% | 38% | 41% |
| Service games held | 89% | 76% | 87% |
| Breaks of serve | 15% | 24% | 30% |
| Aces per service game | 0.73 | 0.39 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.20 | 0.18 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 29% | 23% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 31/53 | 18/29 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 44% | 75% | |
| Matches in the sample | 64 | 50 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Ben Shelton
- 07/11/26WLuca Van Assche#47ATP Paris · SF5:7 6:3 6:4
- 06/11/26WTommy Paul#14ATP Paris · QF6:4 4:6 6:3
- 05/11/26WArthur Rinderknech#68ATP Paris · R163:6 6:4 7:6
- 03/11/26WCameron Norrie#45ATP Paris · R326:3 6:4
- 29/10/26LJerome Kym#164ATP Basel · R163:6 7:6 6:7
- 27/10/26WAleksandar Kovacevic#84ATP Basel · R326:7 7:6 7:6
- 11/10/26LArthur Gea#44ATP Shanghai · R326:7 6:7
- 09/10/26WDaniel Altmaier#63ATP Shanghai · R646:3 7:6
- 13/09/26LAlexander Zverev#1ATP US Open · F3:6 6:7 7:5 2:6
- 11/09/26WFrances Tiafoe#8ATP US Open · SF4:6 6:3 6:3 7:5
Carlos Alcaraz
- 07/11/26WCasper Ruud#23ATP Paris · SF6:4 6:4
- 06/11/26WTaylor Fritz#12ATP Paris · QF6:7 7:5 6:3
- 04/11/26WAlex Michelsen#35ATP Paris · R327:6 6:3
- 01/11/26WAlex de Minaur#9ATP Vienna · F6:1 6:4
- 31/10/26WDaniil Medvedev#5ATP Vienna · SF6:4 7:6
- 30/10/26WTommy Paul#14ATP Vienna · QF6:4 7:6
- 29/10/26WNikoloz Basilashvili#87ATP Vienna · R166:1 7:6
- 27/10/26WKaren Khachanov#25ATP Vienna · R326:4 7:6
- 12/10/26LZizou Bergs#40ATP Shanghai · R325:7 6:7
- 10/10/26WJuan Manuel Cerúndolo#54ATP Shanghai · R646:3 6:3
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| B. Shelton | C. Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 31–1272% | 39–589% |
| Clay | 8–562% | 5–183% |
| Grass | 6–275% | 0–0 |
Head to head
B. Shelton 1–2 C. Alcaraz
- 09/09/26Winner: B. Shelton6:7 6:1 6:3 1:6 7:6
- 01/06/25Winner: C. Alcaraz6:7 3:6 6:4 4:6
- 09/08/23Winner: C. Alcaraz3:6 6:7
Road through the tournament
Ben Shelton
- 03/11/26WCameron Norrie#45ATP Paris · R326:3 6:4
- 05/11/26WArthur Rinderknech#68ATP Paris · R163:6 6:4 7:6
- 06/11/26WTommy Paul#14ATP Paris · QF6:4 4:6 6:3
- 07/11/26WLuca Van Assche#47ATP Paris · SF5:7 6:3 6:4
Carlos Alcaraz
- 04/11/26WAlex Michelsen#35ATP Paris · R327:6 6:3
- 06/11/26WTaylor Fritz#12ATP Paris · QF6:7 7:5 6:3
- 07/11/26WCasper Ruud#23ATP Paris · SF6:4 6:4
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