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Challenger Brisbane 3Challenger 75Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Tomic vs Ellis: prediction and tips

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Bernard TomicATP #181Elo 1750hard 1742
-:-
Blake EllisATP #412Elo 1593hard 1597

Our tips

Tip in 1d 4h

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.

Winner

Bernard Tomic64%
Blake Ellis36%

Elo: B. Tomic 70% · B. Ellis 30%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 B. Tomic42%
2:1 B. Tomic22%
2:1 B. Ellis16%
2:0 B. Ellis21%

First set

Bernard Tomic60%
Blake Ellis40%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

Expected total: 23.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.572%28%62%
20.564%36%54%
21.557%43%49%
22.551%49%42%
23.544%56%37%
24.540%60%35%
25.538%63%32%

Sample: 5,794 matches

Games handicap

B. Tomic −2.554%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes43%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

B. TomicTourB. Ellis
Service points won64%62%64%
Return points won37%38%34%
Service games held79%76%81%
Breaks of serve24%24%15%
Aces per service game0.470.83
Double faults per game0.130.29
Sets with a tie-break18%25%
Tie-breaks won12/2713/20
Wins in straight sets56%35%
Matches in the sample6533

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Bernard Tomic

  • 13/10/26LDane Sweeny#114Challenger Jinan · R322:2
  • 08/10/26LMatteo Arnaldi#36ATP Shanghai · R1283:6 1:6
  • 06/10/26WTimofey Skatov#201ATP Shanghai · Q27:5 6:4
  • 05/10/26WTerence Atmane#73ATP Shanghai · Q16:3 4:6 5:3
  • 01/10/26WYuta Shimizu#405Challenger Jingshan · R165:7 6:2 7:6
  • 29/09/26WFajing Sun#287Challenger Jingshan · R326:4 6:7 6:3
  • 23/09/26LFajing Sun#287ATP Hangzhou · Q24:6 5:7
  • 22/09/26WRigele TE#740ATP Hangzhou · Q16:7 6:4 7:5
  • 19/09/26LPavel Kotov#170Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · SF6:7 6:7
  • 18/09/26WAlexander Binda#460Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · QF6:3 6:4

Blake Ellis

  • 17/09/26LIlia Simakin#148Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R164:6 2:6
  • 15/09/26WHiroki Moriya#455Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R326:4 5:7 6:3
  • 09/09/26LMax Purcell#618Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R164:6 4:6
  • 08/09/26WBenjamin O'Connell#955Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R327:6 6:3
  • 05/07/26LGarrett Johns#451Challenger Newport · Q14:6 3:6
  • 02/07/26LOzan Baris#397Challenger Cary · R161:6 4:6
  • 30/06/26WPhilip Sekulic#343Challenger Cary · R327:5 6:7 7:5
  • 03/06/26LAndres Martin#359Challenger Tyler · R326:7 6:7
  • 26/05/26LTyler Zink#441Challenger Little Rock · R324:6 7:5 3:6
  • 17/04/26LLi Tu#506Challenger Wuning 2 · QF3:6 3:6

Elo over the last year

Bernard TomicBlake Ellis

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

B. TomicB. Ellis
Hard court31–2258%17–1553%
Clay2–340%0–0
Grass3–443%0–10%

Head to head

B. Tomic 0–1 B. Ellis

  • 08/01/26Winner: B. Ellis6:7 6:3 4:6

Upcoming matches

See also