Challenger Brisbane 3Challenger 75Qualifying round 1hardbest of three setsqualifying
Moriya vs Baker: prediction and tips
·
Hiroki MoriyaATP #455Elo 1527hard 1518
-:-
Nikolas BakerElo 1500hard 1500
Our tips
Tip in 4h 52mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Hiroki Moriya95%
Nikolas Baker5%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 H. Moriya80%
2:1 H. Moriya14%
2:1 N. Baker2%
2:0 N. Baker4%
First set
Hiroki Moriya87%
Nikolas Baker13%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes17%
no84%
Total games
Expected total: 19.4
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.5 | 77% | 23% | 94% |
| 16.5 | 66% | 34% | 88% |
| 17.5 | 55% | 45% | 80% |
| 18.5 | 45% | 55% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 37% | 64% | 63% |
| 20.5 | 29% | 71% | 55% |
| 21.5 | 25% | 75% | 49% |
Sample: 1,170 matches
Games handicap
H. Moriya −6.547%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes17%
tour average 32%
Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| H. Moriya | Tour | N. Baker | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 61% | 62% | — |
| Return points won | 39% | 38% | — |
| Service games held | 74% | 76% | — |
| Breaks of serve | 27% | 24% | — |
| Aces per service game | 0.22 | — | |
| Double faults per game | 0.28 | — | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 19% | — | |
| Tie-breaks won | 10/26 | — | |
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | — | |
| Matches in the sample | 57 | — |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Hiroki Moriya
- 28/10/26LMert Alkaya#321Challenger Ningbo · R163:6 6:3 4:6
- 27/10/26WJames McCabe#256Challenger Ningbo · R326:1 2:6 7:6
- 26/10/26WTimofei Derepasko#614Challenger Ningbo · Q17:6 6:2
- 25/10/26WTaisei Ichikawa#723Challenger Ningbo · Q16:4 6:4
- 18/10/26LOmar Jasika#329Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q12:6 3:6
- 07/10/26LKeisuke Saitoh#483Challenger Wuning 3 · R162:6 3:6
- 06/10/26WKeegan Smith#192Challenger Wuning 3 · R323:6 7:6 6:3
- 29/09/26LOmar Jasika#329Challenger Jingshan · Q24:6 4:6
- 28/09/26WJilong HuangChallenger Jingshan · Q16:0 6:4
- 15/09/26LBlake Ellis#412Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R324:6 7:5 3:6
Nikolas Baker
No matches on record.
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| H. Moriya | N. Baker | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 26–2848% | 0–0 |
| Clay | 1–150% | 0–0 |
| Grass | 1–150% | 0–0 |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
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