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ATP ParisMasters 1000Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Shelton vs Norrie 2:0: result and our tips

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Ben SheltonATP #4Elo 2150hard 2131
2:0final6:3 6:4
Cameron NorrieATP #45Elo 1971hard 1939

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Lost69%

Where the number comes from: market alone 61% → with the players' profiles 69%

Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Shelton 16 of 20, Norrie 13 of 20 (tour average 60%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: SheltonWon71%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 71%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Shelton won 7 of the last 10 matches; Norrie lost 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Lost39%

Where the number comes from: market alone 35% → with the players' profiles 39%

Over 25.5 games in recent matches: Shelton 11 of 20, Norrie 8 of 20 (tour average 35%); Shelton: 3 matches in a row over 25.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Ben Shelton72%
Cameron Norrie28%

Elo: B. Shelton 75% · C. Norrie 25%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 B. Shelton48%
2:1 B. Shelton23%
2:1 C. Norrie13%
2:0 C. Norrie16%

First set

Ben Shelton67%
Cameron Norrie33%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 23.0 · 47%market (no margin): 52%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.569%31%60%
21.561%39%54%
22.555%45%46%
23.547%53%40%
24.540%60%38%
25.538%62%35%
26.535%65%30%

Sample: 4,556 matches

Games handicap

B. Shelton −3.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes52%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 23.0out · 19 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Ben SheltonCameron Norrie
6Aces5
0Double faults1
68%First serves in72%
88%First-serve points won61%
60%Second-serve points won53%
3/6Break points converted1/2
9/10Service games held6/9
79%Service points won58%
42%Return points won21%
62Total points won45

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

B. SheltonTourC. Norrie
Service points won70%62%63%
Return points won33%38%37%
Service games held89%76%81%
Breaks of serve15%24%21%
Aces per service game0.710.35
Double faults per game0.210.20
Sets with a tie-break30%23%
Tie-breaks won30/5215/30
Wins in straight sets46%48%
Matches in the sample6049

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Ben Shelton

Cameron Norrie

Elo over the last year

Ben SheltonCameron Norrie

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

B. SheltonC. Norrie
Hard court27–1269%20–1656%
Clay8–562%5–645%
Grass6–275%0–20%

Head to head

B. Shelton 0–1 C. Norrie

  • 19/08/22Winner: C. Norrie0:6 2:6

Road through the tournament

Ben Shelton

First match in this tournament.

Cameron Norrie

Upcoming matches