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ATP ParisMasters 1000Round of 64hard, indoorbest of three sets

Norrie vs Arnaldi 2:1: result and our tips

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Cameron NorrieATP #45Elo 1962hard 1930
2:1final6:4 1:6 6:3
Matteo ArnaldiATP #36Elo 1895hard 1835

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Cameron Norrie68%
Matteo Arnaldi32%

Elo: C. Norrie 63% · M. Arnaldi 37%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 C. Norrie44%
2:1 C. Norrie23%
2:1 M. Arnaldi14%
2:0 M. Arnaldi19%

First set

Cameron Norrie63%
Matteo Arnaldi37%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 51%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.571%29%68%
20.563%37%60%
21.557%43%54%
22.549%51%46%
23.541%59%40%
24.539%61%38%
25.536%64%35%

Sample: 5,243 matches

Games handicap

C. Norrie −3.546%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes42%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 22.5out · 26 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Cameron NorrieMatteo Arnaldi
3Aces6
0Double faults1
73%First serves in68%
67%First-serve points won69%
65%Second-serve points won61%
3/7Break points converted3/7
10/13Service games held10/13
66%Service points won67%
33%Return points won34%
73Total points won73

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

C. NorrieTourM. Arnaldi
Service points won64%62%60%
Return points won37%38%37%
Service games held81%76%73%
Breaks of serve21%24%23%
Aces per service game0.360.37
Double faults per game0.210.27
Sets with a tie-break24%23%
Tie-breaks won15/3114/26
Wins in straight sets48%20%
Matches in the sample4940

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Cameron Norrie

Matteo Arnaldi

Elo over the last year

Cameron NorrieMatteo Arnaldi

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

C. NorrieM. Arnaldi
Hard court20–1656%4–1127%
Clay5–645%14–767%
Grass0–20%2–250%

Head to head

C. Norrie 0–1 M. Arnaldi

  • 02/09/23Winner: M. Arnaldi3:6 4:6 3:6

Upcoming matches

See also