ATP ParisMasters 1000Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets
Berrettini vs Humbert: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 10mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Matteo Berrettini47%
Ugo Humbert53%
Elo: M. Berrettini 52% · U. Humbert 48%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 M. Berrettini27%
2:1 M. Berrettini20%
2:1 U. Humbert20%
2:0 U. Humbert33%
First set
Matteo Berrettini48%
Ugo Humbert53%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 25.5 · 56%market (no margin): 49%
The 25.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 25.3
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 75% | 25% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 67% | 33% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 61% | 39% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 53% | 47% | 40% |
| 24.5 | 46% | 54% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 44% | 56% | 35% |
| 26.5 | 40% | 60% | 30% |
Sample: 5,481 matches
Games handicap
U. Humbert −0.552%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes55%
tour average 39%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| M. Berrettini | Tour | U. Humbert | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 68% | 62% | 66% |
| Return points won | 34% | 38% | 35% |
| Service games held | 86% | 76% | 83% |
| Breaks of serve | 16% | 24% | 17% |
| Aces per service game | 0.69 | 0.58 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.16 | 0.27 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 25% | 22% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 17/30 | 16/28 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 48% | 74% | |
| Matches in the sample | 46 | 52 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Matteo Berrettini
- 03/11/26WBrandon Nakashima#18ATP Paris · R646:4 3:6 7:6
- 30/10/26LAlex de Minaur#9ATP Vienna · QF6:7 2:6
- 29/10/26WFlavio Cobolli#6ATP Vienna · R165:2
- 26/10/26WTomás Martín Etcheverry#31ATP Vienna · R326:3 6:4
- 20/10/26LKyrian Jacquet#80ATP Lyon · R326:7 5:7
- 09/10/26LBrandon Nakashima#18ATP Shanghai · R646:7 5:7
- 07/10/26WAleksandar Kovacevic#84ATP Shanghai · R1286:7 6:1 6:4
- 03/10/26LAdolfo Daniel Vallejo#56ATP Tokyo · R166:7 1:6
- 01/10/26WAlejandro Davidovich Fokina#17ATP Tokyo · R321:6 7:6 6:4
- 02/09/26LMariano Navone#48ATP US Open · R646:3 3:6 4:6 6:7
Ugo Humbert
- 02/11/26WBotic Van de Zandschulp#37ATP Paris · R647:6 6:7 6:3
- 28/10/26LNovak Djokovic#11ATP Basel · R326:4 3:6 4:6
- 20/10/26LCorentin Moutet#111ATP Lyon · R322:6 7:6 6:7
- 09/10/26LArthur Gea#44ATP Shanghai · R644:6 6:3 1:6
- 03/10/26LJiří Lehečka#15ATP Tokyo · R167:5 4:6 4:6
- 01/10/26WBrandon Nakashima#18ATP Tokyo · R326:3 6:2
- 16/08/26LMichael Zheng#100ATP Cincinnati · R644:6 3:6
- 05/08/26LDaniel Merida#42ATP Montreal · R643:6 3:6
- 30/07/26LBen Shelton#4ATP Washington · R167:6 3:6 4:6
- 28/07/26WAndres Martin#359ATP Washington · R326:2 7:5
Elo over the last year
Matteo BerrettiniUgo Humbert
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| M. Berrettini | U. Humbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 11–1052% | 14–1647% |
| Clay | 12–1055% | 5–550% |
| Grass | 2–167% | 8–467% |
Head to head
M. Berrettini 3–1 U. Humbert
- 16/10/25Winner: U. Humbert6:7 3:6
- 29/08/23Winner: M. Berrettini6:4 6:2 6:2
- 04/01/22Winner: M. Berrettini6:4 7:6
- 03/09/20Winner: M. Berrettini6:4 6:4 7:6
Road through the tournament
Matteo Berrettini
- 03/11/26WBrandon Nakashima#18ATP Paris · R646:4 3:6 7:6
Ugo Humbert
- 02/11/26WBotic Van de Zandschulp#37ATP Paris · R647:6 6:7 6:3