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ATP ParisMasters 1000Round of 64hard, indoorbest of three sets

Nakashima vs Berrettini 1:2: result and our tips

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Brandon NakashimaATP #18Elo 2045hard 2014
1:2final4:6 6:3 6:7(8)
Matteo BerrettiniATP #43Elo 1976hard 1935

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Tie-break in Match: YesWon55%

Where the number comes from: market alone 41% → with the players' profiles 55%

A tie-break in recent matches: Nakashima 10 of 20, Berrettini 15 of 20 (tour average 39%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 22.5Won61%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 51% → with the players' profiles 61%

    Over 22.5 games in recent matches: Nakashima 13 of 20, Berrettini 11 of 20 (tour average 46%)

  • 1st Set Winner: NakashimaLost56%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Nakashima won the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches, Berrettini lost the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 28.5Won32%

Where the number comes from: market alone 27% → with the players' profiles 32%

Over 28.5 games in recent matches: Nakashima 9 of 20, Berrettini 7 of 20 (tour average 24%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Brandon Nakashima60%
Matteo Berrettini40%

Elo: B. Nakashima 61% · M. Berrettini 39%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 B. Nakashima37%
2:1 B. Nakashima21%
2:1 M. Berrettini18%
2:0 M. Berrettini23%

First set

Brandon Nakashima57%
Matteo Berrettini43%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 24.5 · 54%market (no margin): 49%

The 24.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 25.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.574%26%60%
21.566%34%54%
22.560%40%46%
23.553%47%40%
24.546%54%38%
25.543%57%35%
26.540%60%30%

Sample: 6,050 matches

Games handicap

B. Nakashima −2.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes55%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 24.5out · 32 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Brandon NakashimaMatteo Berrettini
9Aces17
1Double faults1
70%First serves in76%
78%First-serve points won88%
62%Second-serve points won50%
1/2Break points converted1/4
15/16Service games held14/15
74%Service points won79%
21%Return points won27%
90Total points won92

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

B. NakashimaTourM. Berrettini
Service points won68%62%68%
Return points won35%38%34%
Service games held87%76%86%
Breaks of serve19%24%16%
Aces per service game0.790.68
Double faults per game0.100.16
Sets with a tie-break26%24%
Tie-breaks won17/3816/29
Wins in straight sets74%52%
Matches in the sample5846

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Brandon Nakashima

Matteo Berrettini

Elo over the last year

Brandon NakashimaMatteo Berrettini

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

B. NakashimaM. Berrettini
Hard court26–1662%11–1052%
Clay5–550%12–1055%
Grass4–267%2–167%

Head to head

B. Nakashima 1–1 M. Berrettini

  • 09/10/26Winner: B. Nakashima7:6 7:5
  • 17/01/22Winner: M. Berrettini6:4 2:6 6:7 3:6

See also