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ATP ParisMasters 1000Round of 64hard, indoorbest of three sets

Humbert vs Van de Zandschulp 2:1: result and our tips

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Ugo HumbertATP #38Elo 1947hard 1927
2:1finalrebuilt7:6(5) 6:7(9) 6:3
Botic Van de ZandschulpATP #37Elo 1979hard 1955

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: HumbertWon58%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Humbert won the first set in 5 of their 5 head-to-head matches

Other tips

  • Match Winner: HumbertWon62%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 62%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Humbert won 5 of 5 head-to-head matches

  • Total Games: Under 25.5Lost60%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 62% → with the players' profiles 60%

    Under 25.5 games in 4 of their 4 head-to-head matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Won40%

Where the number comes from: market alone 38% → with the players' profiles 40%

Humbert: 4 matches in a row over 25.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Ugo Humbert64%
Botic Van de Zandschulp36%

Elo: U. Humbert 46% · B. Van de Zandschulp 54%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 U. Humbert40%
2:1 U. Humbert22%
2:1 B. Van de Zandschulp16%
2:0 B. Van de Zandschulp22%

First set

Ugo Humbert59%
Botic Van de Zandschulp41%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 54%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.575%25%68%
20.567%33%60%
21.560%40%54%
22.554%46%46%
23.546%54%40%
24.541%59%38%
25.539%61%35%

Sample: 5,769 matches

Games handicap

U. Humbert −2.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes47%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

Tip worked out after the fact from pre-match data — the board was not published yet at the time.

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 35 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Ugo HumbertBotic Van de Zandschulp
14Aces3
6Double faults7
54%First serves in64%
88%First-serve points won67%
46%Second-serve points won54%
4/7Break points converted3/4
14/17Service games held12/16
69%Service points won62%
38%Return points won32%
115Total points won101

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

U. HumbertTourB. Van de Zandschulp
Service points won66%62%62%
Return points won35%38%38%
Service games held84%76%79%
Breaks of serve17%24%22%
Aces per service game0.580.54
Double faults per game0.260.37
Sets with a tie-break21%22%
Tie-breaks won15/2621/33
Wins in straight sets77%67%
Matches in the sample5157

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Ugo Humbert

Botic Van de Zandschulp

Elo over the last year

Ugo HumbertBotic Van de Zandschulp

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

U. HumbertB. Van de Zandschulp
Hard court13–1645%21–1755%
Clay5–550%7–750%
Grass8–467%2–340%

Head to head

U. Humbert 5–0 B. Van de Zandschulp

  • 03/02/26Winner: U. Humbert6:3 6:4
  • 03/07/24Winner: U. Humbert7:6 6:1 6:3
  • 26/04/24Winner: U. Humbert6:3 6:3
  • 22/03/24Winner: U. Humbert6:4 6:3
  • 07/10/23Winner: U. Humbert6:4 1:6 6:2

See also