Nardi vs Donski: prediction and tips
·
Our tips
No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: L. Nardi 77% · A. Donski 23%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 21.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.5 | 83% | 17% | 88% |
| 17.5 | 73% | 27% | 79% |
| 18.5 | 63% | 37% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 54% | 46% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 45% | 55% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 40% | 60% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 33% | 67% | 42% |
Sample: 2,078 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 32%
Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| L. Nardi | Tour | A. Donski | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 61% | 62% | 63% |
| Return points won | 39% | 38% | 36% |
| Service games held | 76% | 76% | 80% |
| Breaks of serve | 25% | 24% | 21% |
| Aces per service game | 0.35 | 0.77 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.25 | 0.45 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 22% | 20% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 8/20 | 11/22 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 77% | 64% | |
| Matches in the sample | 37 | 46 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Luca Nardi
- 17/10/26LJacob Fearnley#90Challenger Olbia · SF2:6 4:6
- 16/10/26WMichael Mmoh#149Challenger Olbia · QF6:4 6:4
- 14/10/26WLorenzo Carboni#552Challenger Olbia · R166:4 6:1
- 13/10/26WAugust Holmgren#267Challenger Olbia · R324:6 6:4 6:4
- 05/10/26LPablo Llamas Ruiz#141Challenger Villena · R321:6 6:7
- 25/08/26LFederico Cina#136ATP US Open · Q14:6 0:3
- 11/07/26LAndrea Guerrieri#166ATP Umag · Q13:6 6:7
- 24/06/26LOtto Virtanen#116ATP Wimbledon · Q24:6 4:6
- 22/06/26WRio Noguchi#219ATP Wimbledon · Q16:2 6:3
- 15/06/26LRemy Bertola#222Challenger Nottingham 2 · R326:3 6:7 6:7
Alexander Donski
- 01/11/26LOmar Jasika#329Challenger Taipei · Q16:3 6:7 4:6
- 25/10/26LYun Seong Chung#622Challenger Seoul · Q13:6 4:6
- 11/10/26LGeorgii Kravchenko#310Challenger Olbia · Q15:7 2:6
- 27/09/26LAlejo Sanchez Quilez#324Challenger Porto 2 · Q13:6 6:3 1:6
- 17/08/26LAndrea Guerrieri#166Challenger Quebec City · Q14:6 6:1 1:6
- 07/08/26LDaniil Glinka#161Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · QF6:7 4:6
- 05/08/26WAlejandro Moro Canas#238Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · R166:4 7:6
- 04/08/26WTakuya Kumasaka#661Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · R327:5 6:4
- 03/08/26WNitin Kumar Sinha#871Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Q26:3 6:4
- 02/08/26WKenny De SchepperChallenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Q12:6 6:4 7:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| L. Nardi | A. Donski | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 11–1248% | 15–1256% |
| Clay | 3–538% | 10–953% |
| Grass | 3–350% | 0–0 |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Upcoming matches
- Ferdinand Livet Novkirichka vs Alexander Ritschard, · Challenger Orleans
- Pierre Delage vs Lucas Poullain, · Challenger Orleans
- Calvin Hemery vs Yanis Ghazouani Durand, · Challenger Orleans
- Keisuke Saitoh vs Renta Tokuda, · Challenger Matsuyama
- Joel Schwaerzler vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong, · Challenger Matsuyama
- Alafia Ayeni vs Edward Winter, · Challenger Brisbane 3