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Challenger GuayaquilChallenger 75Round of 32claybest of three sets

Varillas vs Pacheco Mendez 0:2: result and our tips

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Juan Pablo VarillasATP #201Elo 1716clay 1723
0:2final2:6 3:6
Rodrigo Pacheco MendezATP #267Elo 1700clay 1628

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Lost66%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Pacheco Mendez: 6 matches in a row over 19.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Juan Pablo Varillas52%
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez48%

Elo: J. Varillas 63% · R. Pacheco Mendez 37%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Varillas32%
2:1 J. Varillas20%
2:1 R. Pacheco Mendez19%
2:0 R. Pacheco Mendez29%

First set

Juan Pablo Varillas52%
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez48%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 55%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.575%25%68%
19.566%34%59%
20.558%43%52%
21.552%49%46%
22.545%55%40%
23.541%59%36%
24.539%61%34%

Sample: 4,414 matches

Games handicap

J. Varillas −0.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes31%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 17 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Juan Pablo VarillasRodrigo Pacheco Mendez
2Aces5
3Double faults1
53%First serves in62%
75%First-serve points won82%
32%Second-serve points won77%
0/0Break points converted3/8
5/8Service games held9/9
55%Service points won80%
20%Return points won45%
38Total points won60

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. VarillasTourR. Pacheco Mendez
Service points won62%62%64%
Return points won40%38%38%
Service games held76%76%81%
Breaks of serve28%24%24%
Aces per service game0.370.43
Double faults per game0.140.27
Sets with a tie-break18%16%
Tie-breaks won14/285/19
Wins in straight sets58%67%
Matches in the sample6851

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Juan Pablo Varillas

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

  • 20/10/26LSantiago Rodriguez Taverna#425Challenger Cali · R326:7 7:6 6:7
  • 14/10/26LHugo Dellien#119Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · R163:6 5:7
  • 12/10/26WJuan Estevez#352Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · R326:3 4:6 6:3
  • 20/09/26LIlia Simakin#146Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · F7:6 4:6 3:6
  • 19/09/26WMoise Kouame#176Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · SF2:6 6:3 6:4
  • 18/09/26WPhilip Sekulic#338Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · QF6:4 6:4
  • 16/09/26WArthur Weber#398Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R166:4 6:2
  • 14/09/26WSergio Callejon Hernando#474Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R326:3 7:5
  • 08/09/26LMax Purcell#616Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R323:6 4:6
  • 28/08/26LAndres Andrade#224Challenger Kingston 2 · SF3:6 6:3 4:6

Elo over the last year

Juan Pablo VarillasRodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. VarillasR. Pacheco Mendez
Hard court0–10%19–1458%
Clay40–2760%8–1044%

Head to head

They have not met yet.