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WTA TokyoWTA 500Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Wang vs Parks 0:2: result and our tips

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Xinyu WangWTA #39Elo 1795hard 1764
0:2final1:6 6:7(7)
Alycia ParksWTA #65Elo 1660hard 1659

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: WangLost63%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Wang won the first set in 10 of the last 20 matches, Parks lost the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Long shot
Total Games: Under 19.5Lost40%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 19.5 games in recent matches: Wang 11 of 20, Parks 12 of 20 (tour average 44%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Xinyu Wang64%
Alycia Parks36%

Elo: X. Wang 65% · A. Parks 35%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 X. Wang41%
2:1 X. Wang22%
2:1 A. Parks16%
2:0 A. Parks22%

First set

Xinyu Wang60%
Alycia Parks41%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 52%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.569%31%64%
19.561%39%56%
20.554%46%49%
21.548%52%44%
22.542%58%38%
23.538%62%34%
24.536%64%32%

Sample: 2,321 matches

Games handicap

X. Wang −3.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Under 21.5in · 20 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Xinyu WangAlycia Parks
4Aces7
3Double faults4
70%First serves in61%
59%First-serve points won79%
65%Second-serve points won56%
0/1Break points converted2/6
7/9Service games held10/10
61%Service points won70%
30%Return points won39%
61Total points won75

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

X. WangTourA. Parks
Service points won58%56%57%
Return points won42%44%41%
Service games held68%63%67%
Breaks of serve33%37%30%
Aces per service game0.290.55
Double faults per game0.300.57
Sets with a tie-break6%9%
Tie-breaks won1/711/16
Wins in straight sets60%58%
Matches in the sample4973

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Xinyu Wang

Alycia Parks

Elo over the last year

Xinyu WangAlycia Parks

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

X. WangA. Parks
Hard court17–1553%25–2550%
Clay5–645%10–856%
Grass3–350%1–420%

Head to head

X. Wang 0–1 A. Parks

  • 16/02/25Winner: A. Parks3:6 3:6

Road through the tournament

Xinyu Wang

First match in this tournament.

Alycia Parks