ATP Lyon250Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Wawrinka vs Landaluce 2:1: result and our tips

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Stan WawrinkaATP #140Elo 1813hard 1831
2:1final6:3 6:7(2) 7:6(5)
Martin LandaluceATP #67Elo 1843hard 1824

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 21.5Won61%

Where the number comes from: market alone 58% → with the players' profiles 61%

Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Wawrinka 13 of 20, Landaluce 15 of 20 (tour average 54%); Landaluce: 4 matches in a row over 21.5 games

Other tips

  • Match Winner: LandaluceLost62%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 62%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Wawrinka lost 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Won40%

Where the number comes from: market alone 38% → with the players' profiles 40%

Over 25.5 games in recent matches: Wawrinka 10 of 20, Landaluce 12 of 20 (tour average 35%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Stan Wawrinka37%
Martin Landaluce63%

Elo: S. Wawrinka 51% · M. Landaluce 49%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 S. Wawrinka22%
2:1 S. Wawrinka17%
2:1 M. Landaluce22%
2:0 M. Landaluce39%

First set

Stan Wawrinka42%
Martin Landaluce59%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 54%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.568%32%60%
21.561%39%54%
22.554%46%46%
23.546%54%40%
24.542%58%38%
25.539%61%35%
26.535%65%30%

Sample: 5,733 matches

Games handicap

Martin Landaluce −2.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes47%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 35 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Stan WawrinkaMartin Landaluce
16Aces7
1Double faults5
59%First serves in63%
84%First-serve points won74%
58%Second-serve points won61%
1/10Break points converted0/4
17/17Service games held15/16
73%Service points won69%
31%Return points won27%
113Total points won108

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

S. WawrinkaTourM. Landaluce
Service points won65%62%62%
Return points won33%38%38%
Service games held81%76%77%
Breaks of serve15%24%23%
Aces per service game0.570.39
Double faults per game0.210.34
Sets with a tie-break31%15%
Tie-breaks won12/2413/25
Wins in straight sets55%55%
Matches in the sample2964

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Stan Wawrinka

Martin Landaluce

Elo over the last year

Stan WawrinkaMartin Landaluce

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

S. WawrinkaM. Landaluce
Hard court9–950%18–2146%
Clay2–820%10–856%
Grass0–10%3–443%

Head to head

S. Wawrinka 1–0 M. Landaluce

  • 19/09/25Winner: Stan Wawrinka6:4 6:1

See also