Challenger JinanChallenger 175Finalhardbest of three sets

Bellucci vs Landaluce 2:1: result and our tips

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Mattia BellucciATP #68Elo 1923hard 1895
2:1final6:2 4:6 6:3
Martin LandaluceATP #67Elo 1856hard 1839

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: BellucciWon57%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Bellucci won the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches, Landaluce lost the first set in 11 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%); Bellucci: 4 matches in a row winning the first set

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 19.5Won71%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 68% → with the players' profiles 71%

    Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Bellucci 14 of 20, Landaluce 17 of 20 (tour average 62%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Won37%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 25.5 games in recent matches: Bellucci 8 of 20, Landaluce 12 of 20 (tour average 32%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Mattia Bellucci60%
Martin Landaluce40%

Elo: M. Bellucci 58% · M. Landaluce 42%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Bellucci38%
2:1 M. Bellucci21%
2:1 M. Landaluce16%
2:0 M. Landaluce24%

First set

Mattia Bellucci57%
Martin Landaluce43%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 50%market (no margin): 51%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.571%29%62%
20.563%37%54%
21.557%43%49%
22.550%50%42%
23.544%56%37%
24.540%60%35%
25.537%63%32%

Sample: 5,850 matches

Games handicap

Mattia Bellucci −2.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes40%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 23.0out · 27 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Mattia BellucciMartin Landaluce
8Aces1
4Double faults1
76%First serves in75%
77%First-serve points won67%
50%Second-serve points won44%
3/4Break points converted1/6
13/14Service games held10/13
71%Service points won62%
38%Return points won29%
86Total points won69

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. BellucciTourM. Landaluce
Service points won65%62%62%
Return points won37%38%38%
Service games held82%76%77%
Breaks of serve22%24%23%
Aces per service game0.570.40
Double faults per game0.250.34
Sets with a tie-break17%15%
Tie-breaks won12/2613/25
Wins in straight sets76%55%
Matches in the sample6864

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Mattia Bellucci

Martin Landaluce

Elo over the last year

Mattia BellucciMartin Landaluce

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. BellucciM. Landaluce
Hard court26–1958%18–2146%
Clay7–750%10–856%
Grass5–456%3–443%

Head to head

M. Bellucci 1–4 M. Landaluce

  • 23/08/26Winner: Mattia Bellucci6:4 6:7 6:1
  • 11/05/26Winner: Martin Landaluce4:6 3:6
  • 03/06/25Winner: Martin Landaluce6:4 4:6 6:7
  • 30/12/24Winner: Martin Landaluce3:6 2:6
  • 20/10/24Winner: Martin Landaluce4:6 4:6

Road through the tournament

Mattia Bellucci

Martin Landaluce

See also