Chinese Super LeagueMatchday 21

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 2-0 Chongqing Tonglianglong: prediction, tips and result

Sunday 2 August · 13:00

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

2-3 0-3 3-0 0-2 3-4

2-0Full time(half time 0-0)

Chongqing Tonglianglong

0-1 1-1 1-1 1-3 1-0

Stadium:: Shenzhen Sports Center Stadium, Shenzhen
Referee:: Memetjan Ahmat

The match in numbers

1X2EloShenzhen Xinpengcheng119445%37%Draw27%28%Chongqing Tonglianglong121529%35%favourite won

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS54%52%O2.549%47%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.2not both scored

H2Hlast meeting

17/04/202617/04/26Chongqing Tonglianglong2:0Shenzhen XinpengchengL

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng's record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss2.0 goals per match

too few to read anything into

Cornersleague corners10.6league 10.2under 10.5: 52%Expected corners: 10.6 in this match, 10.2 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 10

Cardsleague cards4.3league 4.2under 4.5: 58%Expected cards: 4.3 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 4.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.won · ended 2

RefereeM. Ahmat+0.4 cards vs average7 matches

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.5 : 1.1total 2.6Attack/defence1.4 : 1.2total 2.6

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng : Chongqing Tonglianglong

Most likely scores

Market1-113%1-010%2-19%0-1—0-08%2-08%Attack/defence1-113%1-011%2-19%0-19%0-08%2-08%

MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-010%1-011%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-1—0-19%0-00-08%0-08%2-02-08%2-08%

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Over 1.5 goals	75%72%	72%
12 – no draw	74%73%	73%
Under 3.5 goals	73%75%	75%
1X – home team avoid defeat	72%69%	69%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	56%58%	58%
Both teams to score: yes	54%52%	52%
Under 2.5 goals	51%53%	53%
Over 2.5 goals	49%47%	47%
Both teams to score: no	46%48%	48%
1 – Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win	45%42% · Elo 37%	42%· Elo 37%
2 – Chongqing Tonglianglong win	29%31% · Elo 35%	31%· Elo 35%
X – draw	27%27% · Elo 28%	27%· Elo 28%
Over 3.5 goals	27%25%	25%
Under 1.5 goals	25%28%	28%

Attack vs defence

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng attack vs Chongqing Tonglianglong defenceattack1420defence1507−87 pts to the attack

Chongqing Tonglianglong attack vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng defenceattack1369defence1415−46 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng concede a lot late on: 15 of 37 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
Chongqing Tonglianglong: newly promoted
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
Chongqing Tonglianglong: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form