Torneo DIMAYORMatchday 5
Envigado vs Magdalena: prediction, tips and stats
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1.2:0.9Pre-match
Our tips
Tip in 1d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defence
BTTS43%42%O2.536%35%|exp. goals 1.2 : 0.9H2Hlast 3 meetings
- Magdalena1:1EnvigadoD
- Envigado0:1MagdalenaL
- Magdalena4:2EnvigadoL
Envigado's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague cornersin line with the league
9.2league 9.1under 9.5: 56%Expected corners: 9.2 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 9.5 corners.Yellow cardsleague yellows
4.8league 5.1under 5.5: 65%Expected yellow cards: 4.8 in this match, 5.1 on average in the league.In this league 59% of matches end under 5.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 23%.Referee
no referee dataPrediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 0.9total 2.2Attack/defence1.2 : 0.9total 2.1
Envigado : MagdalenaMost likely scores
Market1-014%1-114%0-013%0-19%2-010%2-1—Attack/defence1-015%1-114%0-013%0-111%2-09%2-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-014%1-015%1-11-114%1-114%0-00-013%0-013%0-10-19%0-111%2-02-010%2-09%2-12-1—2-18%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 83%84% | 84% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 76%73% | 73% |
| 12 – no draw | 70%70% | 70% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64%62% | 62% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 64%65% | 65% |
| Both teams to score: no | 57%58% | 58% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 54%57% | 57% |
| 1 – Envigado win | 46%43% · Elo 46% | 43%· Elo 46% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 43%42% | 42% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 36%38% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36%35% | 35% |
| X – draw | 30%30% · Elo 29% | 30%· Elo 29% |
| 2 – Magdalena win | 24%27% · Elo 25% | 27%· Elo 25% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17%16% | 16% |
Attack vs defence
Envigado attack vs Magdalena defenceattack1582defence1609−27 pts to the attack
Magdalena attack vs Envigado defenceattack1589defence1611−22 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 50%close to the league averageunder 50%over
We expect 7.7 in this match, 7.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.564%68%
7.550%53%
8.537%40%
9.525%24%
Each team on its own
Envigadowe expect 3.9, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 36%
Magdalenawe expect 3.6, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 49%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 54%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 24.2 in this match, 24.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.553%57%
24.546%54%
25.540%47%
26.534%41%
Each team on its own
Envigadowe expect 10.9, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 31%
Magdalenawe expect 13.2, league average 12.3 · chance of over 12.5: 55%
Offsidesleague average
Under 4.5 · 64%close to the league averageunderover 36%
We expect 3.9 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.3.555%55%
4.536%39%
5.521%24%
6.511%15%
Each team on its own
Envigadowe expect 2.2, league average 2.2 · chance of over 2.5: 37%
Magdalenawe expect 1.7, league average 2.0 · chance of over 2.5: 25%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Magdalena4 draws in a rowaway: 2Went on 28%League 33%Model 30%Record 6
- Envigado8 matches in a row under 2.5 goalsat home: 6Went on 57%League 64%Model 64%Record 18
- Magdalena7 matches in a row under 2.5 goalsaway: 4Went on 56%League 64%Model 64%Record 18
- Magdalena12 matches unbeatenaway: 6Went on 78%League 63%Model 54%Record 25
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Magdalena matches average only 3.7 cards (league 5.3) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Envigado: only 1 of the last 10 league matches over 2.5 goals
- Magdalena: only 2 of the last 10 league matches over 2.5 goals
- Magdalena: unbeaten in 12 league matches
- Envigado: newly promoted
- Magdalena: newly promoted
- Envigado: 5 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Magdalena: 6 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Group A
| # | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Envigado | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:2 | 7 |
| 3 | Magdalena | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3:3 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Envigado are the favourites. Chances: Envigado win 46%, draw 30%, Magdalena win 24%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
Expected goals: 2.2 (Envigado 1.3, Magdalena 0.9). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 36%. Most likely score: 1-0.
The chance that both teams score is 43%.
The Torneo DIMAYOR match kicks off 15 November 2026, 20:50 (UK time).