Torneo DIMAYORMatchday 5
Quindio vs Cartagena: prediction, tips and stats
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1.3:1.1Pre-match
Our tips
Tip in 21h 29mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defence
BTTS51%49%O2.545%43%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.1H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Cartagena2:3QuindioW
- Quindio1:1CartagenaD
- Cartagena2:1QuindioL
- Quindio0:0CartagenaD
- Cartagena4:1QuindioL
Quindio's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague cornersin line with the league
8.8league 9.1under 9.5: 61%Expected corners: 8.8 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 9.5 corners.Yellow cardsleague yellowsin line with the league
5.0league 5.1under 5.5: 62%Expected yellow cards: 5.0 in this match, 5.1 on average in the league.In this league 59% of matches end under 5.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 23%.Referee
no referee dataPrediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.2total 2.5Attack/defence1.3 : 1.1total 2.4
Quindio : CartagenaMost likely scores
Market1-114%1-010%0-19%0-09%2-18%2-0—Attack/defence1-113%1-011%0-110%0-010%2-18%2-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%1-01-010%1-011%0-10-19%0-110%0-00-09%0-010%2-12-18%2-18%2-02-0—2-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 76%78% | 78% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72%69% | 69% |
| 12 – no draw | 70%72% | 72% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 67%68% | 68% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 61%61% | 61% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55%57% | 57% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51%49% | 49% |
| Both teams to score: no | 49%51% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45%43% | 43% |
| 1 – Quindio win | 38%39% · Elo 42% | 39%· Elo 42% |
| 2 – Cartagena win | 32%32% · Elo 28% | 32%· Elo 28% |
| X – draw | 29%28% · Elo 30% | 28%· Elo 30% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28%31% | 31% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Quindio attack vs Cartagena defenceattack1507defence1510−3 pts to the attack
Cartagena attack vs Quindio defenceattack1646defence1538+108 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 7.9 in this match, 7.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.567%68%
7.553%53%
8.540%40%
9.528%24%
Each team on its own
Quindiowe expect 5.0, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 54%
Cartagenawe expect 3.2, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 39%
Foulsleague average
Over 24.5 · 60%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 40%over
We expect 26.4 in this match, 24.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.566%57%
24.560%54%
25.554%47%
26.547%41%
Each team on its own
Quindiowe expect 14.2, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 64%
Cartagenawe expect 12.4, league average 12.3 · chance of over 12.5: 47%
Offsidesleague average
Under 4.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 45%
We expect 4.4 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.3.564%55%
4.545%39%
5.529%24%
6.517%15%
Each team on its own
Quindiowe expect 2.6, league average 2.2 · chance of over 2.5: 47%
Cartagenawe expect 1.9, league average 2.0 · chance of over 2.5: 30%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Cartagena6 draws in a row awayoverall: 1Went on 26%League 33%Model 29%Record 6
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Quindio: only 2 of the last 10 league matches over 2.5 goals
- Quindio: 22 pts in the last 10 league matches, bookmakers expected about 16 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Cartagena: only 12 pts in the last 10 league matches, bookmakers expected about 18 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Quindio played 0 days ago
- Cartagena played 1 day ago
League form
League position
Group B
| # | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quindio | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6:4 | 9 |
| 3 | Cartagena | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5:5 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Quindio win 38%, draw 29%, Cartagena win 32%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
Expected goals: 2.5 (Quindio 1.3, Cartagena 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 45%. Most likely score: 1-1.
The chance that both teams score is 51%.
The Torneo DIMAYOR match kicks off 16 November 2026, 01:10 (UK time).