UEFA Nations LeagueMatchday 5
Italy vs France: prediction, tips and stats
·
-:-Pre-match
The match in numbers
1X2Elo
Italy22%Draw24%France55%Goalsattack/defence
BTTS59%O2.560%H2Hhome side's goals first
—Cornersleague corners
—Cardsleague cards
—Referee
—Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removed
Expected goals
Market1.2 : 1.9total 3.1
Italy : FranceMost likely scores
Market1-111%1-210%0-29%0-18%1-36%
Market1-11-111%1-21-210%0-20-29%0-10-18%1-31-36%
| Outcome | Market |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 77% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% |
| 2 – France win | 55% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 46% |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% |
| X – draw | 24% |
| 1 – Italy win | 22% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18% |
Form in the competition
League position
A1
| # | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
Frequently asked questions
France are the favourites. Chances: Italy win 22%, draw 24%, France win 55%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
Expected goals: 3.1 (Italy 1.2, France 1.9). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 60%. Most likely score: 1-1.
The chance that both teams score is 59%.
The UEFA Nations League match kicks off 12 November 2026, 19:45 (UK time).