J1 LeagueMatchday 1

Yokohama F. Marinos 3-4 Kashima Antlers: prediction, tips and result

Friday 7 August · 11:25

Yokohama F. Marinos

3-4Full time(half time 2-1)

Kashima Antlers

Stadium:: National Stadium, Tokyo
Referee:: Hiroyuki Kimura

The match in numbers

1X2EloYokohama F. Marinos168429%26%Draw30%27%Kashima Antlers178241%47%favourite won

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS47%53%O2.540%48%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.4both scored

H2Hlast 5 meetings

10/05/202610/05/26Yokohama F. Marinos1:1Kashima AntlersD
14/02/202614/02/26Kashima Antlers1:0Yokohama F. MarinosL
06/12/202506/12/25Kashima Antlers2:1Yokohama F. MarinosL
25/05/202525/05/25Yokohama F. Marinos3:1Kashima AntlersW
14/07/202414/07/24Yokohama F. Marinos4:1Kashima AntlersW

Yokohama F. Marinos's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses3.0 goals per match

Cornersleague corners9.3league 9.5under 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 9.3 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.won · ended 9

Cardsleague cards2.6league 2.6under 2.5: 53%Expected cards: 2.6 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 2.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.won · ended 1

RefereeH. Kimura+0.2 cards vs average14 matches

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.0 : 1.3total 2.3Attack/defence1.2 : 1.4total 2.6

Yokohama F. Marinos : Kashima Antlers

Most likely scores

Market1-114%0-112%0-011%1-09%1-28%2-1—Attack/defence1-113%0-110%0-08%1-09%1-29%2-18%

MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%0-10-112%0-110%0-00-011%0-08%1-01-09%1-09%1-21-28%1-29%2-12-1—2-18%

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Under 3.5 goals	80%74%	74%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	71%68%	68%
12 – no draw	70%73%	73%
Over 1.5 goals	68%73%	73%
Under 2.5 goals	60%52%	52%
1X – home team avoid defeat	59%59%	59%
Both teams to score: no	53%47%	47%
Both teams to score: yes	47%53%	53%
2 – Kashima Antlers win	41%41% · Elo 47%	41%· Elo 47%
Over 2.5 goals	40%48%	48%
Under 1.5 goals	32%27%	27%
X – draw	30%27% · Elo 27%	27%· Elo 27%
1 – Yokohama F. Marinos win	29%32% · Elo 26%	32%· Elo 26%
Over 3.5 goals	20%26%	26%

Attack vs defence

Yokohama F. Marinos attack vs Kashima Antlers defenceattack1539defence1600−61 pts to the attack

Kashima Antlers attack vs Yokohama F. Marinos defenceattack1562defence1471+91 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

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