Sporting Jax vs Louisville City: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 7d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS62%O2.578%64%|exp. goals 1.2 : 2.1
H2Hlast meeting
- Louisville City1:0Sporting JaxL
Sporting Jax's record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss1.0 goals per match
too few to read anything intoCornersleague corners9.3league 9.2under 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.3 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.0league 4.2under 4.5: 63%Expected yellow cards: 4.0 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.3 : 2.8total 4.1Attack/defence1.2 : 2.1total 3.3
Sporting Jax : Louisville CityMost likely scores
Model1-16%1-28%1-38%0-27%0-1—0-36%2-2—Attack/defence1-110%1-210%1-37%0-28%0-18%0-3—2-26%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-16%1-110%1-21-28%1-210%1-31-38%1-37%0-20-27%0-28%0-10-1—0-18%0-30-36%0-3—2-22-2—2-26%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 92%84% | 84% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 85%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 84%78% | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78%64% | 64% |
| 2 – Louisville City win | 70%56% · Elo 57% | 56%· Elo 57% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 59%42% | 42% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 41%58% | 58% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 31%44% | 44% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22%36% | 36% |
| X – draw | 16%22% · Elo 23% | 22%· Elo 23% |
| 1 – Sporting Jax win | 15%22% · Elo 19% | 22%· Elo 19% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 8%16% | 16% |
Attack vs defence
Sporting Jax attack vs Louisville City defenceattack1469defence1553−84 pts to the attack
Louisville City attack vs Sporting Jax defenceattack1643defence1314+329 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 42%over
We expect 9.4 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.570%51%
8.558%34%
9.546%28%
10.534%24%
Each team on its own
Sporting Jaxwe expect 4.3, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 43%
Louisville Citywe expect 5.5, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 78%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 74%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 27%
We expect 19.4 in this match, 22.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.533%63%
22.527%52%
23.521%46%
24.516%41%
Each team on its own
Sporting Jaxwe expect 9.0, league average 11.0 · chance of over 11.5: 21%
Louisville Citywe expect 10.1, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 33%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 68%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 32%over
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.586%70%
2.568%55%
3.547%39%
4.528%17%
Each team on its own
Sporting Jaxwe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 35%
Louisville Citywe expect 2.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 66%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Sporting Jax concede 2.9 goals per game
- Louisville City matches average only 2.9 cards (league 4.4) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Sporting Jax: 4 defeats in a row
- Sporting Jax: newly promoted
- Sporting Jax: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Louisville City: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Louisville City | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 45:42 | 40 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sporting Jax vs Louisville City?
Louisville City are the favourites. Chances: Sporting Jax win 15%, draw 16%, Louisville City win 70%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Sporting Jax vs Louisville City?
Expected goals: 4.1 (Sporting Jax 1.3, Louisville City 2.8). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 78%. Most likely score: 1-2.
When is Sporting Jax vs Louisville City?
The USL Championship match kicks off 21 October 2026, 22:00 (UK time).