USL Championship

Miami 4-1 Sporting Jax: prediction, tips and result

·

Miami
0-52-21-12-12-0
4-1Full time(half time 2-1)
Sporting Jax
1-40-20-33-21-4
Stadium:
South Dade Kia Field at Pitbull Stadium, Miami, FL

Our tips

Main tip
Total Goals: Over 2.5Won68%

our numbers: 3.5 goals in total in this match, league average 2.6; over 2.5 goals in 6 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 10 (48% of league matches)

Other tips

  • Corners: Under 9.5Won60%

    7.3 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 9.6 in the visitors', league average 9.2

  • Shots on Target – Miami: Over 5.5Won59%

    our numbers for Miami: 6.3 shots on target against a league average of 4.6; Miami: over 5.5 shots on target in 3 of their last 9 league matches, Sporting Jax's opponents had over 5.5 in 8 of 9 (32% of league matches)

  • Offsides – Miami: Over 1.5Won70%

    our numbers for Miami: 2.5 offsides against a league average of 1.6; Miami: 1.7 offsides a match, Sporting Jax's opponents were caught offside 3.2 times on average, league average 1.6

  • Fouls – Miami: Over 10.5Lost64%

    our numbers for Miami: 12.1 fouls against a league average of 10.8; Miami: 16.1 fouls a match, league average 10.8

For the brave
Total Goals: Over 3.5Won47%

our numbers: 3.5 goals in total in this match, league average 2.6; over 3.5 goals in 4 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 10 (30% of league matches)

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloMiami139164%44%Draw19%27%Sporting Jax136017%29%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS62%59%O2.568%58%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.2both scored
H2Hlast meeting
  1. Sporting Jax2:4MiamiW
Miami's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses6.0 goals per match
too few to read anything into
Cornersleague corners8.9league 9.2under 9.5: 60%Expected corners: 8.9 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.won · ended 6
Cardsleague cards4.4league 4.4under 4.5: 55%Expected cards: 4.4 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 4.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.lost · ended 6
Refereeno referee data
Dutching(several bets at once)72%11:1coverageleague 55% · H2H 1/1covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.4 : 1.1total 3.5Attack/defence1.8 : 1.2total 3.0
Miami : Sporting Jax
Most likely scores
Market1-19%2-110%1-0—2-08%3-18%3-07%1-2—2-2—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%1-09%2-08%3-1—3-0—1-27%2-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-19%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%1-01-0—1-09%2-02-08%2-08%3-13-18%3-1—3-03-07%3-0—1-21-2—1-27%2-22-2—2-26%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals87%80%80%
1X – home team avoid defeat83%73%73%
12 – no draw81%76%76%
Our tip: Over 2.5 goals68%58%58%
1 – Miami win64%49% · Elo 44%49%· Elo 44%
Both teams to score: yes62%59%59%
Under 3.5 goals53%65%65%
Over 3.5 goals47%35%35%
Both teams to score: no38%41%41%
X2 – away team avoid defeat36%51%51%
Under 2.5 goals32%42%42%
X – draw19%24% · Elo 27%24%· Elo 27%
2 – Sporting Jax win17%27% · Elo 29%27%· Elo 29%
Under 1.5 goals13%20%20%
Attack vs defence
Miami attack vs Sporting Jax defenceattack1433defence1317+116 pts to the attack
Sporting Jax attack vs Miami defenceattack1477defence1419+58 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 48%over
We expect 8.9 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.565%50%
8.552%35%
9.540%29%
10.528%24%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Miamiwe expect 6.3, league average 4.6 · chance of over 4.5: 73%
Sporting Jaxwe expect 3.3, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 41%
Foulsleague average
Over 22.5 · 62%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 38%over
We expect 24.7 in this match, 22.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
21.569%62%
22.562%50%
23.556%45%
24.549%40%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Miamiwe expect 12.1, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 64%
Sporting Jaxwe expect 12.8, league average 11.5 · chance of over 11.5: 61%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 68%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 32%over
We expect 3.5 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.586%70%
2.568%55%
3.547%36%
4.528%15%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Miamiwe expect 2.5, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 70%
Sporting Jaxwe expect 1.2, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 33%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Sporting Jax concede 2.7 goals per game
  • Miami matches average 5.8 cards (league 4.4) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Sporting Jax: newly promoted
  • Miami: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Sporting Jax: 5 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form

Miami

Sporting Jax

League position

Eastern Conference

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8Miami29991138:4736
13Sporting Jax27351932:7314
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Miami vs Sporting Jax?

Miami 4-1 Sporting Jax (half time 2-1).

Did the Miami vs Sporting Jax tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Total Goals: Over 2.5. The tip won.

See also