Challenger CaliChallenger 75Quarterfinalclaybest of three setsqualifying
Aboian vs Tobon 2:1: result and our tips
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Our tips
No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Valerio Aboian37%
Miguel Tobon63%
Elo: V. Aboian 50% · M. Tobon 50%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 V. Aboian21%
2:1 V. Aboian16%
2:1 M. Tobon23%
2:0 M. Tobon41%
First set
Valerio Aboian40%
Miguel Tobon60%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%
Total games
Expected total: 22.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 69% | 31% | 68% |
| 19.5 | 61% | 39% | 59% |
| 20.5 | 55% | 45% | 52% |
| 21.5 | 49% | 51% | 46% |
| 22.5 | 43% | 57% | 40% |
| 23.5 | 40% | 61% | 36% |
| 24.5 | 36% | 64% | 34% |
Sample: 4,787 matches
Games handicap
M. Tobon −3.547%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes25%
tour average 27%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite lost
- Most likely set scorewas 2:1
- Total games Under 21.5out · 28 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Valerio Aboian | Miguel Tobon | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Aces | 1 |
| 1 | Double faults | 10 |
| 55% | First serves in | 58% |
| 72% | First-serve points won | 77% |
| 50% | Second-serve points won | 40% |
| 3/6 | Break points converted | 3/6 |
| 10/13 | Service games held | 11/14 |
| 62% | Service points won | 62% |
| 39% | Return points won | 38% |
| 88 | Total points won | 88 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| V. Aboian | Tour | M. Tobon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 59% | 62% | 62% |
| Return points won | 42% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 70% | 76% | 75% |
| Breaks of serve | 32% | 24% | 25% |
| Aces per service game | 0.42 | 0.38 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.20 | 0.32 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 8% | 21% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 4/11 | 13/26 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 44% | 48% | |
| Matches in the sample | 55 | 51 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Valerio Aboian
- 22/10/26WMatias Soto#260Challenger Cali · R166:2 6:2
- 21/10/26WFacundo Mena#193Challenger Cali · R322:6 6:3 6:4
- 13/10/26LFranco Roncadelli#259Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · R327:5 0:6 3:6
- 05/10/26LGenaro Alberto Olivieri#257Challenger Antofagasta · R321:6 4:6
- 24/09/26LJuan Carlos Prado Angelo#198Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · R162:6 1:6
- 22/09/26WGenaro Alberto Olivieri#257Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · R321:6 6:2 6:3
- 21/09/26WMatias Franco DescotteChallenger Buenos Aires 2 · Q26:1 6:7 6:4
- 20/09/26WJulian Cundom#921Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · Q14:6 6:3 6:2
- 11/09/26LPedro Martinez#126Challenger Genoa · QF1:6 2:6
- 09/09/26WAndrea Pellegrino#139Challenger Genoa · R166:3 6:2
Miguel Tobon
- 22/10/26WNicolas Mejia#115Challenger Cali · R164:6 6:2 7:6
- 21/10/26WGonzalo Villanueva#318Challenger Cali · R326:1 2:6 6:4
- 09/10/26LJuan Carlos Prado Angelo#198Challenger Antofagasta · QF2:6 2:6
- 08/10/26WTomas Barrios Vera#156Challenger Antofagasta · R163:6 7:6 7:6
- 06/10/26WThiago Cigarran#590Challenger Antofagasta · R324:6 6:4 6:1
- 29/09/26LJuan Bautista Torres#298Challenger Curitiba · R322:6 6:3 1:6
- 10/09/26LEdas Butvilas#208Challenger Istanbul 3 · R166:7 1:6
- 08/09/26WKoray KirciChallenger Istanbul 3 · R326:3 6:3
- 27/08/26LRodrigo Pacheco Mendez#267Challenger Kingston 2 · QF2:6 4:6
- 26/08/26WJuan Pablo Ficovich#366Challenger Kingston 2 · R166:3 6:1
Elo over the last year
Valerio AboianMiguel Tobon
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| V. Aboian | M. Tobon | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 0–0 | 9–950% |
| Clay | 32–2358% | 16–1748% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Valerio Aboian
- 21/10/26WFacundo Mena#193Challenger Cali · R322:6 6:3 6:4
- 22/10/26WMatias Soto#260Challenger Cali · R166:2 6:2
Miguel Tobon
- 21/10/26WGonzalo Villanueva#318Challenger Cali · R326:1 2:6 6:4
- 22/10/26WNicolas Mejia#115Challenger Cali · R164:6 6:2 7:6