Challenger MaiaChallenger 125Round of 32claybest of three sets

Alcala Gurri vs Sanchez Quilez 0:2: result and our tips

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Max Alcala GurriATP #138Elo 1833clay 1838
0:2final3:6 4:6
Alejo Sanchez QuilezATP #375Elo 1619clay 1612

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: Alcala GurriLost68%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Alcala Gurri: 8 matches in a row winning the first set; Alcala Gurri won the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches, Sanchez Quilez lost the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: Alcala GurriLost75%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 75%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Alcala Gurri won 9 of the last 10 matches

  • Total Games: Under 23.5Won66%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 63% → with the players' profiles 66%

    Under 23.5 games in recent matches: Alcala Gurri 15 of 20, Sanchez Quilez 15 of 20 (tour average 64%)

Long shot
Total Games: Under 18.5Lost40%

Where the number comes from: market alone 30% → with the players' profiles 40%

Under 18.5 games in recent matches: Alcala Gurri 11 of 20, Sanchez Quilez 7 of 20 (tour average 32%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Max Alcala Gurri77%
Alejo Sanchez Quilez24%

Elo: M. Alcala Gurri 79% · A. Sanchez Quilez 21%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Alcala Gurri53%
2:1 M. Alcala Gurri23%
2:1 A. Sanchez Quilez12%
2:0 A. Sanchez Quilez13%

First set

Max Alcala Gurri70%
Alejo Sanchez Quilez30%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no66%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.5 · 54%market (no margin): 52%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.577%23%84%
17.567%33%76%
18.558%42%68%
19.551%49%59%
20.546%54%52%
21.539%61%47%
22.535%65%40%

Sample: 2,894 matches

Games handicap

Max Alcala Gurri −4.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes16%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Under 20.5in · 19 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Max Alcala GurriAlejo Sanchez Quilez
2Aces1
4Double faults1
67%First serves in69%
58%First-serve points won73%
36%Second-serve points won56%
2/5Break points converted4/11
5/9Service games held8/10
51%Service points won67%
33%Return points won49%
53Total points won72

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. Alcala GurriTourA. Sanchez Quilez
Service points won61%62%59%
Return points won47%38%41%
Service games held73%76%69%
Breaks of serve43%24%31%
Aces per service game0.100.18
Double faults per game0.240.16
Sets with a tie-break8%10%
Tie-breaks won5/94/11
Wins in straight sets74%65%
Matches in the sample4949

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Max Alcala Gurri

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Elo over the last year

Max Alcala GurriAlejo Sanchez Quilez

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. Alcala GurriA. Sanchez Quilez
Hard court0–20%9–853%
Clay35–1274%17–1553%

Head to head

M. Alcala Gurri 0–1 A. Sanchez Quilez

  • 01/09/24Winner: Alejo Sanchez Quilez2:6 6:4 6:7

Road through the tournament

Max Alcala Gurri

First match in this tournament.

Alejo Sanchez Quilez