Challenger BragaChallenger 75Quarterfinalclaybest of three setsqualifying

Neumayer vs Alcala Gurri 2:1: result and our tips

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Lukas NeumayerATP #180Elo 1789clay 1793
2:1final6:7(6) 6:2 6:2
Max Alcala GurriATP #138Elo 1858clay 1863

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 23.5Lost61%

Where the number comes from: market alone 59% → with the players' profiles 61%

Under 23.5 games in recent matches: Neumayer 14 of 20, Alcala Gurri 16 of 20 (tour average 64%); Alcala Gurri: 6 matches in a row under 23.5 games

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost61%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Alcala Gurri: 6 matches in a row without a deciding set

Long shot
Total Games: Under 19.5Lost41%

Where the number comes from: market alone 35% → with the players' profiles 41%

Alcala Gurri: 6 matches in a row under 19.5 games; Under 19.5 games in recent matches: Neumayer 9 of 20, Alcala Gurri 14 of 20 (tour average 41%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Lukas Neumayer45%
Max Alcala Gurri55%

Elo: L. Neumayer 40% · M. Alcala Gurri 60%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 L. Neumayer26%
2:1 L. Neumayer19%
2:1 M. Alcala Gurri20%
2:0 M. Alcala Gurri35%

First set

Lukas Neumayer46%
Max Alcala Gurri54%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 54%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.576%24%76%
18.567%33%68%
19.559%41%59%
20.553%47%52%
21.546%54%47%
22.542%58%40%
23.539%61%36%

Sample: 4,562 matches

Games handicap

Max Alcala Gurri −1.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes22%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 22.0out · 29 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Lukas NeumayerMax Alcala Gurri
3Aces1
0Double faults6
59%First serves in69%
60%First-serve points won46%
44%Second-serve points won39%
9/16Break points converted5/11
9/14Service games held5/14
53%Service points won44%
56%Return points won47%
107Total points won89

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

L. NeumayerTourM. Alcala Gurri
Service points won62%62%61%
Return points won40%38%47%
Service games held78%76%74%
Breaks of serve30%24%43%
Aces per service game0.260.10
Double faults per game0.190.24
Sets with a tie-break13%8%
Tie-breaks won9/204/8
Wins in straight sets68%74%
Matches in the sample6548

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Lukas Neumayer

Max Alcala Gurri

Elo over the last year

Lukas NeumayerMax Alcala Gurri

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

L. NeumayerM. Alcala Gurri
Hard court7–847%0–20%
Clay33–1667%35–1176%
Grass0–10%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Lukas Neumayer

Max Alcala Gurri

See also