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Challenger TarantoChallenger 50Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Bax vs Cadenasso 0:2: result and our tips

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Florent BaxATP #292Elo 1559hard 1565
0:2final5:7 2:6
Gianluca CadenassoATP #215Elo 1767hard 1633

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: CadenassoWon61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 61%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Cadenasso won 8 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Sets: Over 2.5Lost38%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

A third set in recent matches: Bax 8 of 20, Cadenasso 10 of 20 (tour average 34%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Florent Bax39%
Gianluca Cadenasso61%

Elo: F. Bax 40% · G. Cadenasso 60%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 F. Bax23%
2:1 F. Bax16%
2:1 G. Cadenasso21%
2:0 G. Cadenasso39%

First set

Florent Bax42%
Gianluca Cadenasso58%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 46%market (no margin): 49%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.567%33%62%
20.559%41%54%
21.554%46%49%
22.546%54%42%
23.541%59%37%
24.539%61%35%
25.535%65%32%

Sample: 6,031 matches

Games handicap

G. Cadenasso −2.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes34%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 22.0out · 20 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Florent BaxGianluca Cadenasso
3Aces1
4Double faults2
66%First serves in69%
77%First-serve points won85%
44%Second-serve points won50%
0/2Break points converted3/4
7/10Service games held10/10
66%Service points won74%
26%Return points won34%
50Total points won61

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

F. BaxTourG. Cadenasso
Service points won64%62%60%
Return points won35%38%42%
Service games held81%76%71%
Breaks of serve19%24%34%
Aces per service game0.560.24
Double faults per game0.290.23
Sets with a tie-break21%10%
Tie-breaks won13/205/11
Wins in straight sets70%54%
Matches in the sample3946

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Florent Bax

  • 18/09/26LMoise Kouame#132Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · QF4:6 2:6
  • 17/09/26WMartin Borisiouk#726Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R166:3 7:6
  • 15/09/26WThanh Minh TruongChallenger Phan Thiet 4 · R326:4 6:3
  • 08/09/26LMaximus Jones#493Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R320:6 6:3 6:7
  • 18/08/26LDaniil Glinka#161Challenger Kingston · R326:2 3:6 0:6
  • 07/08/26LIlia Simakin#148Challenger Istanbul 2 · QF0:6 7:6 4:6
  • 05/08/26WDaniil Ostapenkov#511Challenger Istanbul 2 · R166:7 7:6 6:1
  • 04/08/26WArthur Weber#419Challenger Istanbul 2 · R326:3 6:4
  • 29/07/26LGabriel Debru#556Challenger Samsun · R164:6 6:3 2:6
  • 28/07/26WTakuya Kumasaka#661Challenger Samsun · R327:6 6:3

Gianluca Cadenasso

  • 20/10/26LSandro Kopp#294Challenger Florence · R326:7 1:6
  • 18/10/26WRadu Mihai Papoe#280Challenger Catania · F6:4 3:6 6:4
  • 17/10/26WMassimo Giunta#368Challenger Catania · SF6:2 6:3
  • 16/10/26WMarvin Moeller#227Challenger Catania · QF7:5 4:6 7:6
  • 15/10/26WSvyatoslav Gulin#407Challenger Catania · R167:5 6:4
  • 13/10/26WKai Wehnelt#643Challenger Catania · R326:7 6:3 6:4
  • 07/10/26LMassimo Giunta#368Challenger Palermo · R166:7 5:7
  • 06/10/26WFilippo MoroniChallenger Palermo · R323:6 6:4 6:3
  • 02/10/26LVitaliy Sachko#175Challenger Bari · QF6:4 2:6 0:3
  • 30/09/26WLorenzo Angelini#531Challenger Bari · R165:7 6:3 6:0

Elo over the last year

Florent BaxGianluca Cadenasso

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

F. BaxG. Cadenasso
Hard court15–1256%0–0
Clay5–645%26–1958%
Grass0–10%0–10%

Head to head

They have not met yet.