Challenger RoanneChallenger 125Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Blanchet vs Paris 2:0: result and our tips

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Ugo BlanchetATP #305Elo 1668hard 1689
2:0final7:6(5) 6:3
Tom ParisATP #676Elo 1579hard 1593

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: BlanchetWon73%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 73%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Paris lost 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 26.5Lost30%

Where the number comes from: market alone 27% → with the players' profiles 30%

Over 26.5 games in recent matches: Blanchet 10 of 20, Paris 5 of 18 (tour average 27%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Ugo Blanchet73%
Tom Paris27%

Elo: U. Blanchet 63% · T. Paris 37%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 U. Blanchet51%
2:1 U. Blanchet22%
2:1 T. Paris12%
2:0 T. Paris15%

First set

Ugo Blanchet68%
Tom Paris32%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no66%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 47%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.569%31%62%
20.561%39%54%
21.554%47%49%
22.547%53%42%
23.541%59%37%
24.536%64%35%
25.534%66%32%

Sample: 4,081 matches

Games handicap

Ugo Blanchet −3.555%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes41%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 22.0out · 22 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Ugo BlanchetTom Paris
3Aces2
3Double faults2
48%First serves in55%
88%First-serve points won62%
53%Second-serve points won64%
2/5Break points converted1/2
10/11Service games held8/10
70%Service points won63%
37%Return points won30%
71Total points won60

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

U. BlanchetTourT. Paris
Service points won64%62%62%
Return points won35%38%35%
Service games held81%76%76%
Breaks of serve18%24%19%
Aces per service game0.470.51
Double faults per game0.230.24
Sets with a tie-break22%19%
Tie-breaks won11/254/8
Wins in straight sets57%57%
Matches in the sample4918

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Ugo Blanchet

Tom Paris

Elo over the last year

Ugo BlanchetTom Paris

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

U. BlanchetT. Paris
Hard court18–1850%6–940%
Clay3–827%1–233%
Grass0–20%0–0

Head to head

U. Blanchet 0–1 T. Paris

  • 04/11/23Winner: Tom Paris4:6 1:6

Road through the tournament

Ugo Blanchet

Tom Paris

See also