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Challenger GuayaquilChallenger 75Round of 32claybest of three sets

Bueno vs Barrena 2:0: result and our tips

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Gonzalo BuenoATP #198Elo 1694clay 1702
2:0final7:6(1) 6:3
Alex BarrenaATP #224Elo 1698clay 1701

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Gonzalo Bueno42%
Alex Barrena58%

Elo: G. Bueno 50% · A. Barrena 50%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 G. Bueno24%
2:1 G. Bueno18%
2:1 A. Barrena21%
2:0 A. Barrena37%

First set

Gonzalo Bueno43%
Alex Barrena57%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 55%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.573%27%76%
18.564%36%68%
19.557%43%59%
20.551%49%52%
21.545%55%46%
22.541%59%40%
23.539%62%36%

Sample: 4,906 matches

Games handicap

A. Barrena −2.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes19%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 22 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Gonzalo BuenoAlex Barrena
0Aces2
1Double faults2
68%First serves in57%
67%First-serve points won65%
55%Second-serve points won39%
4/5Break points converted3/4
8/11Service games held6/10
64%Service points won53%
47%Return points won37%
68Total points won55

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

G. BuenoTourA. Barrena
Service points won57%62%58%
Return points won42%38%41%
Service games held67%76%68%
Breaks of serve32%24%30%
Aces per service game0.130.20
Double faults per game0.300.23
Sets with a tie-break9%12%
Tie-breaks won9/147/19
Wins in straight sets62%61%
Matches in the sample6766

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Gonzalo Bueno

Alex Barrena

Elo over the last year

Gonzalo BuenoAlex Barrena

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

G. BuenoA. Barrena
Hard court3–350%0–20%
Clay34–2657%33–3052%
Grass0–10%0–10%

Head to head

G. Bueno 2–1 A. Barrena

  • 23/01/26Winner: A. Barrena4:6 3:6
  • 06/11/25Winner: G. Bueno6:3 1:6 7:6
  • 09/01/24Winner: G. Bueno6:4 5:7 6:3